NFC North Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 5+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions in your life than getting down on the Packers to make the playoffs in early July.
We've recently kicked off our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I'll go division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
This was a fruitful venture for those that tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units).
This season, the NFC North teams face the AFC West and NFC South while rotating through the NFC West, AFC North, and NFC East for their "unique 3" opponents.
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NFC North
Detroit Lions
The Lions were a popular sleeper team in the betting community early in the preseason and then became America's Underdog during their preseason run on Hard Knocks. After a slow start that resembled most of the franchise's history, the offense shifted into another gear, leading the Lions to an 8-2 finish and an outside shot at a playoff berth heading into Week 18. They fell short of a playoff spot but were able to play spoilers, sending Aaron Rodgers and company packing as well. They're less "plucky underdog" and more "viable contender" this season, with expectations higher than ever in the Motor City.
The Lions' late-season run offensively was good enough to put offensive coordinator Ben Johnson on the top of every coaching search this offseason, but Johnson decided he wanted to stay in Detroit and run it back. That alone is reason to be optimistic about the 2023 Lions because the 2022 team showed an ability to outscore teams, ranking fifth in offensive DVOA and sixth in EPA per play on the season. They had success despite ranking 28th in Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost due to injury on the offensive side of the ball. Even with a bit of regression, a healthier season along the offensive line paired with the continuity of Jared Goff and Ben Johnson should lead the Lions to have one of the league's best offenses again in 2023.
You can make the case that replacing Jamaal Williams and De'Andre Swift with David Montgomery and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs is a wash, but I'm excited to see how Gibbs is utilized in this offense. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is also walking into a situation where impactful snaps and targets are available in Year 1, as the position was a turnstile after the midseason trade of T.J. Hockenson. The offense ran through Amon-Ra St. Brown last season, who emerged in his second season as a hyper-efficient playmaker. I expect more of the same this season. Everyone will have to wait until Week 7 for the Jameson Williams rocket ship to take off due to his suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling, but the second-year wideout will give Ben Johnson one more wrinkle during the final stretch of the season.
Defensively, they should be improved, but that's a relative statement. After finishing 31st in EPA per play allowed last season, I suppose there's only one way to go. They have a lot of new faces in the secondary, with Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley set to start at corner, along with C.J. Gardner Johnson and rookie Brian Branch adding depth at safety. Using a first-round pick on off-ball linebacker Jack Campbell was a curious choice, but Campbell is a big body with good instincts and should make an immediate impact on early downs. A lot of their defensive success will rely on the development of their three second-year edge rushers, Aidan Hutchinson, James Houston, and Josh Pascal. Electing to address other needs early in this April's draft was a vote of confidence in the trio, and while I think it's fair to second-guess how the Lions used their early draft capital, I think the end result was an upgrade in talent overall.
The Lions won't sneak up on anyone this season, and their second-place finish last season helped them earn a difficult "unique three" for 2023 (SEA, @ BAL, @ DAL), along with road games against the Chiefs and Chargers. I think we see Goff slide back a bit after posting a career-low interception rate despite the underlying metrics being in line with his career averages, but he's still going to lead one of the NFC's best offenses. While on the other side, the defense takes an inevitable step forward, but how big that step is will go a long way in determining this team's fate in 2023. The Lions haven't made the playoffs since 2016, or won a playoff game since 1991, and there's a chance that both of those marks reset this season.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (-122, FanDuel)
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
Minnesota Vikings
You can't tell the story of the 13-4 2022 Minnesota Vikings without starting with their historic 11-0 run in one-score games. We've historically seen lopsided one-score game records regress the following season, and when you consider that their four regular-season losses were all double-digit defeats, it's easy to poke holes in their inflated win-loss record. Their win total of 8.5 across the market is baking in that regression.
The 2023 Vikings should still have an above-average offense, led by Kirk Cousins and Offensive Player of the Year, Justin Jefferson. First-round pick Jordan Addison slides in as an upgrade to Adam Thielen, who struggled to separate from opposing corners last season. A full season from T.J. Hockenson, who put up Travis Kelce-like numbers down the stretch after his trade from Detroit, will help elevate head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense. Familiar face Alexander Mattison will take over as the primary back after Dalvin Cook's release, and he'll be working behind a middling offensive line that's full of early-round underachievers. Dalvin Cook was the fall guy, but this offensive line ranked dead last in power success rate last season and 31st in stuffed rate, which measures the percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Defensively, this team should look completely different. The Week 1 lineup should feature at least six new starters, along with a new scheme spearheaded by new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. What Flores likes to do differs greatly from what the 2022 Vikings ran under Ed Donatell. Few teams were as predictable as Minnesota was last season. Donatell's Vikings were almost always in a two-high shell zone with a light box and rarely blitzed. During Flores' last year in Miami, the Dolphins played the least amount of two-high zone in the league, ran man coverage at one of the league's highest rates, and led the league in blitz rate. I have concerns that Minnesota's corners aren't built to handle this aggressive scheme, which could lead to a lot of splash plays against this defense when the blitz doesn't get home.
As division winners in 2022, the Vikings play a first-place schedule in 2023, with one of the toughest "unique three" draws in the league (SF, @ PHI, @ CIN). Kirk Cousins is entering the final year of his deal, and I'd expect him to continue to beat up on bad teams while struggling to elevate his team against the league's top competition. Justin Jefferson is good enough to steal a win or two all by himself, and since the NFC is wide open, there's a path to another playoff berth if Brian Flores is able to work miracles in Year 1. I think the Vikings took a wise approach to team building this offseason, and that bodes well for them in the future more so than banking on a repeat performance in 2023.
Best Bet: Total Division Wins - Under 3.5 (-150, Caesars)
Caesars Sportsbook Bonus
Chicago Bears
Expectations were low for the 2022 Bears. New head coach Matt Eberflus was taking over one of the league's worst rosters, and the main question that needed to be answered was Justin Fields's viability as a long-term solution at quarterback. I'm not confident that the 2022 season gave the Bears a clear answer to that question. Still, after pulling off a potential franchise-altering trade with the Carolina Panthers, moving out of the top spot for a haul of picks and D.J. Moore, it was clear that Chicago was willing to give Fields one more look after bolstering his supporting cast.
The beauty of the trade with Carolina is that if Fields doesn't develop as a passer, the Bears will be well-positioned to go after one of the top selections in the 2024 NFL Draft. Fields had an electric 2022 season, mostly due to his ability as a ball carrier. When the designed run rate spiked beginning in Week 7 against the Patriots, the Bears offense showed a new gear for which teams weren't prepared. Fields rushing, particularly behind Chicago's now elite run-blocking offensive line, will be a key piece of the offense moving forward, but the Bears will spin their tires if Fields can't progress in the pocket. Fields led the league in a trio of stats that you don't want to lead the league in; turnover-worthy play rate (4.4%), time to throw (3.45 seconds), and pressure-to-sack rate (27.1%). Sacks are mostly a quarterback stat, so Fields needs to be more decisive, work through his progressions quicker, and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers.
Along with the slew of Panthers' future draft picks, the addition of D.J. Moore gives the Bears a true top-flight wide receiver and shifts Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool into more appropriate roles in the pecking order. Moore can play inside or out, is an electric route-runner, and has an elite 1.94 yards per route run in his career, an incredible mark considering the quality of quarterback play he's experienced in his five NFL seasons. The running back workload should be interesting, and while there's no clear-cut alpha in the group, they'll all benefit from playing with a rushing quarterback. Also, Chicago's offensive line ranked fifth in run-block win rate last season and improved this offseason with the additions of RG Nate Davis and first-round run plow Darnell Wright. These new starters allow Chicago to keep the left side of the line intact. Teven Jenkins stays at left guard, where he thrived last season, and surprising second-year player Braxton Jones, who massively exceeded expectations in his rookie year, at left tackle.
The defense has to improve, but that doesn't mean it's going to be good. The Bears were comfortably the worst defense in the league last season, ranking dead last or near it in every meaningful metric I can name. Per ClevTA, the Bears waved the white flag after their Week 7 Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn trades. Chicago gave up an EPA per dropback of +0.337 from that point forward, which was +0.203 more than the 31st-ranked team, the Raiders. That gap between the Bears and the Raiders was equivalent to the same gap between the Raiders and Chargers, who ranked 4th in the league over that stretch. They were a whole new level of bad. They entered the offseason with money to spend, and while Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards are excellent additions, I'm not sure they're true difference-makers. The Bears totaled a league-low 20 sacks last season and didn't do much to address the issues this offseason. I also have concerns about their corners, and I would've loved to see them overspend at cornerback or edge rusher in free agency instead of double-dipping at off-ball linebacker.
Another year of Justin Fields, with an improved offensive line and better weapons, should be entertaining. Does that translate into wins? I'm not so sure. I do know that the defense alone isn't winning any games for this club, so while I expect the Bears to be fun to watch and more competitive, I still think this is the worst team in this division.
Best Bet: NFC North - Fourth Place (+150, Caesars)
Green Bay Packers
When you're changing starting quarterback for just the third time in 30 years, a four-time league MVP no less, it's noteworthy. The Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers duo produced three straight 13-win seasons prior to last year's 8-9 record, all ending earlier than expected. Since the Packers used their 2020 first-round pick on 2023 starter Jordan Love, a change felt inevitable for all parties, and that time has finally arrived.
Outside of the local Wisconsin optimism, the prevailing narrative is that Jordan Love is not good. I'm not sure how anyone can have a confident take considering Love totaled 21 passing attempts last year and has one career start, a short week start in Kansas City after Rodgers tested positive for Covid-19, to his name. I'm not sure what to expect from Love, but I'm confident he's learned by osmosis after spending three seasons with Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur.
The inexperienced supporting cast surrounding Love adds to the negative sentiment, but I'd argue that there's upside in this group, with every wide receiver and tight end in either their first or second year. Christian Watson flashed massive big-play abilities in the second half of the season, posting an elite 2.26 yards per route run and a 14.3-yard average depth of target. Romeo Doubs cooled after a strong start, but that's not uncommon for a rookie, especially one playing with Aaron Rodgers. He should be better in his second season. The running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon complement each other well and will be leaned on heavily to keep Love ahead of the chains. Love also brings athletism reminiscent of a young Aaron Rodgers, which adds another element to this offense for Matt LaFleur. The offensive line should be above-average if the left side of the line, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, can stay healthy.
The Packers' defense was a massive disappointment last season, but Joe Berry is back as defensive coordinator, which tempers expectations. Green Bay has invested so much early-round capital on their defense over the past five years, and Berry hasn't been able to maximize it yet. All-pro cornerback Jaire Alexander missed time last season, but that doesn't explain why the Packers were routinely gashed on the ground week after week. On paper, this defense has elite talent and depth at all levels. Even if they underperform, they'll still likely be the best defense in this division, but they have the potential to be the best in the league.
The meat of Green Bay's schedule comes in the middle of the season, with manageable stretches to start and finish. Their range of outcomes is vast due to the unpredictable nature of their offense, but in a division and conference that's loaded with questions, I'm willing to bet on a playoff berth for the Packers, with a division title well within reach.
Best Bet: To Make The Playoffs - Yes (+180, DraftKings)
