Week 11 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 16, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Bengals at Ravens

Albert Cesare-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 11 Thursday Night Football, featuring an intriguing AFC North clash between the Bengals and Ravens. This matchup is crucial in the AFC playoff race, with the Bengals (5-4) looking to break into the playoff picture and the Ravens (7-3) aiming to maintain their lead in the division and chase the conference's top-seeded Chiefs. With both teams coming off tough losses and bringing well-honed yet distinctive offensive styles, this sets the stage for one of the best Thursday Night games we’ve had all year. Let's dive into the DFS strategy for this exciting one-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Bengals (+3.5, 21.25) @ Packers (-3.5, 24.75); Over/Under 46

The Ravens are favored by 3.5 points at home with an implied team total of 24.75. They are more vulnerable than usual on the offensive line and in the secondary, however, as both OT Ronnie Stanley and CB Marlon Humphrey will miss this matchup. The team boasts an impressive +7.6 point average score differential, the best game script score in the NFL. They remain committed to the run game, with one of the lowest neutral game script pass rates in the NFL. Coupled with Lamar Jackson's efficient passing (averaging the fifth-most yards per pass attempt in the league), it forms one of the most unique and formidable offensive approaches in the NFL today. Despite a continued lower red zone passing rate than you would expect with an efficient passer like Jackson, the Ravens’ offensive touchdowns per game rank third best over the last three weeks, and fifth best this season. This team creates situations where they gain chunk plays on the ground, even (or especially) when opposing teams know they’re rushing.

In contrast, the Bengals, with an implied total of 21.25, rely heavily on their passing game. They rank second in pass plays per game and sixth in red zone passing, highlighting Joe Burrow's return to form as a passer in the middle third of the regular season. Injuries to key receivers like Tee Higgins (Out, Hamstring) and Ja’Marr Chase (Back) have somewhat dampened their deep-passing abilities, but Burrow's 3.2 deep passes per game, while modest, still present a significant challenge to the Ravens' defense, especially with Marlon Humphrey out.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Joe Burrow had a rough start to the season from an efficiency standpoint but has shown in recent weeks that he’s capable of turning the Bengals’ offense into as lethal a unit as it has been in previous seasons, with the team rattling off five wins in their last seven games. While the team’s Week 10 loss to the surging Texans was a disappointment, it was the fourth time in five games the offense scored at least 24 points. Burrow now ranks above average in completion percentage vs expectation on the season and has moved to average in EPA per game. After failing to do so for the first six weeks of the season, he’s now averaged 7.5 yards per attempt or more in three straight games.

He ranks second in QBR and absolutely torches zone coverage, ranking second in passer rating and first in completion percentage against zone schemes. The Ravens are limited in their ability to play man coverage as much as they would like with Marlon Humphrey on the sidelines, but rank third-toughest against opposing quarterbacks this season in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA).

The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson has put up MVP-level numbers all season and continued to do so even in a loss to the rival Browns in Week 10. Last week was Jackson’s first game all season with two interceptions, and he has only thrown 10 passes all season that have been charted as interceptable. Meanwhile his 18 “Money Throws” (plays charted as requiring exceptional skill or athleticism) rank second in the NFL. He’s top 10 in EPA per game, completion percentage vs expectation, and in true drive success rate. He’s sixth in expected fantasy points per game, but due to the run-heavy nature of the Ravens at the goal line, he has actually underperformed expectations in terms of fantasy scoring. From a fantasy scoring perspective, Jackson is a clear positive regression candidate and could have a quintessential ceiling performance against a Bengals’ defense that is slightly undermanned on the defensive line and gives up the eighth most aFPA to opposing receiving corps.