FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 12 GPP Breakdown

Nov 25, 2023

Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

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More Week 12 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Popular Games to Target

Bills @ Eagles (-3); O/U 48.5

The Eagles returned from their bye with an opponent-specific gameplan for the Chiefs, calling a season-low 22 pass attempts (with 27 combined carries) for Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel). With CB Dane Jackson (concussion) and S Taylor Rapp (neck) added to the scroll of Buffalo’s absences, Hurts should have no issues pushing the ball through the air as the week’s primary cash game play.

What’s happening around him is that the elite combinations, albeit the decision points of Week 12, are all too expensive to onslaught, A.J. Brown ($9,000 DK/$8,800 FD), Stefon Diggs ($8,800 DK/$8,700 FD), and DeVonta Smith ($7,100 DK/$7,400 FD) included. And that confusion in unraveling the week’s puzzle has naturally lowered their ownership despite Philadelphia’s condensed target tree, seeing Smith (38%) and Brown (19%) sponge 57% of the team’s targets without Dallas Goedert. DeVonta makes everything in this slate fit better, cementing him as my preferred option to Brown by default.