FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 15 GPP Breakdown

Dec 16, 2023

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

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More Week 15 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Popular Games to Target

Commanders @ Rams (-6.5); O/U 50.5

Matthew Stafford ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,200 FD) has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt (eighth) from a clean pocket, and Washington has generated the league’s lowest pressure rate (26%) since trading both Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (49ers). Hence why Stafford is this week’s honed-in cash game option and, for tournaments, projected for 20%+ ownership.

We must get creative with Stafford in GPPs including onslaughts with Cooper Kupp ($7,800 DK/$8,200 FD), Puka Nacua ($7,300 DK/$8,000 FD), and Tyler Higbee ($3,600 DK/$5,000 FD), who missed Week 14 with a concussion—even four-man stacks with Kyren Williams ($7,500 DK/$9,600 FD) will be played at a high rate. Ignore our opponents chasing Demarcus Robinson’s ($3,600 DK/$5,600 FD) most recent box score given Higbee’s return to the lineup.

Williams is a viable standalone option, too, given Los Angeles’ 61% run play rate with a two-score lead, the second-highest percentage of any offense. I’m more than willing to eat his projected ownership in smaller fields where he could surge to 60% rostered.

On the other side of the ball, Sam Howell has lost all of his magic the last three games, tossing one touchdown to five picks and getting by solely for his unsustainable four rushing scores—one for every 2.2 carries—in that span. In other words, we cannot chase him in tournaments with any amount of confidence.