Week 16 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: No Stink, Stank, Stunk for the Bills & Chiefs

Dec 20, 2023

David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

We have three massive spreads this week, followed by a cluster between a field goal and a touchdown. We’re getting down to it in survivor and pick’em contests, and hopefully, you are still fighting for victory.

With the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can keep it rolling for a happy holiday season.

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Week 15 Recap

It was a perfect sweep for me last week, as the Dolphins, Rams, Saints, and Bengals all won their respective contests. That brings my record to 32-15 since starting this column in Week 5.

Favorite Favorites

Buffalo Bills @ Chargers

The Bills have found a run-heavy approach that is taking pressure off Josh Allen and it’s working for them. L.A. may play a bit better under interim HC Giff Smith, but it won’t be enough. Buffalo is a 12-point road favorite with 86% Vegas odds to win. The public is picking the Bills 98% of the time so you’ll win or lose this selection with your pool.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Raiders

After a few down weeks, the Chiefs broke out offensively against a tough New England defense by getting a bit more creative. They’ll have Isiah Pacheco back barring any setbacks and should be able to take down a middling Raiders squad playing on the road in Kansas City. PoolGenius is giving 82% win odds to the Chiefs and they’re favored by 10 points. As with most heavy favorites, you’ll win or lose with most of your fellow pickers as 98% are rolling with the home team here.

Sensibly Priced Favorite

L.A. Rams vs. Saints

Both of these teams are fighting for a playoff berth but the Saints are traveling on a short week to face a hot Rams squad. L.A. is a four-point favorite in this NFC battle, with Vegas odds of 66% to win. This is decently priced this week since only 89% of the public is taking the Rams, a lower percentage of folks than games with similar spreads like the Packers (95%) or Denver (97%).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Steelers

Both of these teams are different than when they met just four weeks ago. The Bengals have won three straight with QB Jake Browning getting better in each contest, while the Steelers are a mess and now likely have Mason Rudolph under center. It may not be a pretty win on the road, but Cincy gets it done. The Bengals are favored by two points with 54% odds to come out on top, but only 78% of public bettors are taking them, creating some value this week.

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Survivor Picks for Week 16

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 16 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Buffalo Bills @ Chargers (86%, 12-point favorites)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Giants (86%, 12-point favorites)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Raiders (82%, 10-point favorites)
Denver Broncos vs. Patriots (73%, 6.5-point favorites)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Ravens (69%, 5-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 16 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):

Eagles vs. Giants (33%)
Broncos vs. Patriots (23%)
Packers @ Panthers (14%)
Bills @ Chargers (8%)
Chiefs vs. Raiders (4%)

Future Value

The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 16, you won’t be able to use them later. According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool: