Week 18 Saturday Single-Game NFL DFS: Steelers and Ravens Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 05, 2024

Saturday Single-Game DFS: Steelers at Ravens

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the single-game DFS breakdown for a pivotal Week 18 Saturday matchup between the Steelers and Ravens. This contest presents a unique dynamic in the AFC playoff picture, with Pittsburgh fighting for the final spot and Baltimore already having clinched the top seed, leading to a very wacky game environment. Such contrasting motivations will undoubtedly shape the game's narrative and DFS strategies. Let’s dig into the top plays and build strategies to help take down this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Steelers (20.5) @ Ravens (17); Over/Under 37.5

The Steelers, with a 9-7 record, inexplicably find themselves on the brink of playoff eligibility. A win here is a must, while they also need a win from either the Dolphins or Titans. The Steelers' situation is intensified by their recent shift at quarterback and a potential change in the backfield hierarchy due to Najee Harris's knee injury, spotlighting Jaylen Warren as a likely top option. Under Mason Rudolph, the team has, counterintuitively, seen a decrease in pass attempts to 25.5 per game from a team average of 30.4. Despite their slower pace and relatively low ranking in average score differential, their offense has improved significantly with Rudolph, achieving an impressive average of 3.0 offensive touchdowns in their last three games, seventh in the NFL during that span.

The Ravens, at 13-3, have little at stake. Their top position in the conference means they’re free to rest key starters. A loss also coincidentally increases the chances that Buffalo, a team with one of the highest Super Bowl odds in the NFL, might miss the tournament entirely. With that in mind, the expected absence of many key players offers an unusual depth to their lineup and more difficulty for DFS players to determine who might get the spotlight. Quarterback Tyler Huntley, with only nine snaps this year, will step in as quarterback. Last season, in his multi-game relief of Lamar Jackson, Huntley averaged only 2.3 deep attempts and 2.5 red zone pass attempts per game. The Ravens already tend towards a below-average pace, and pass less than the league norm, suggesting a game environment that almost certainly deviates from the high-octane offensive affairs the Ravens have showcased lately.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Making his third start this season, Mason Rudolph stands out as the clear best option for the Steelers at quarterback. He’s currently boasting a 10.6 AYA and a true passer rating north of 125. While those metrics might regress with a larger sample, they underscore his effectiveness in the role, especially relative to Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky. Rudolph is averaging just 2.7 deep passes and 2.3 red zone attempts per game, well below average, but this has been offset by extreme efficiency. He’s already 29th in total EPA gained among quarterbacks, again in just two starts. He’s currently the best in the NFL in completion percentage versus expectation and in EPA per game. He’s just outside the top five in true drive success rate, a metric that accounts for the limited sample size. Rudolph's capabilities will be tested less than usual this weekend against a unit populated mostly by backups.

Tyler Huntley has only taken nine total snaps this year. However, his starts in 2022 give a glimpse into his potential performance ceiling, which saw him finish as high as the weekly QB15—not all that impressive. Against a Steelers defense ranked seventh in pass defense DVOA, Huntley faces a tough challenge, especially given the expected absence of key offensive players all around him. Last season he averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt and an extremely low 1.8% touchdown rate, outside the top 30 quarterbacks