Divisional Round Single-Game NFL DFS: Chiefs and Bills Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 20, 2024

Divisional Round Single-Game DFS: Chiefs at Bills

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the final game of the Divisional Round, a highly anticipated rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. This game is a clash of titans, as both teams finished their regular season campaigns with identical 11-6 records. The Chiefs fell to the Bills in Week 14, but more importantly, Buffalo is looking to avenge their 2021 divisional round overtime loss to the Chiefs, and they finally get to play in Buffalo. The 2023 Bills are playing as well as they have all season, riding a five-game winning streak to close out the season, claiming the AFC East title, and dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round. The stage is set for the possible game of the year. Let’s dig into the key plays and strategies for this single-game slate.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Chiefs (21.5) @ Bills (24); Over/Under 45.5

The Chiefs’ game plan still revolves around their trademark aggressive, pass-first offense. Despite not producing the jaw-dropping numbers of previous seasons, Patrick Mahomes and company remain well above average in pace and passing during neutral game scripts. Mahomes led the NFL with 6.2 red zone pass attempts per game. However, his average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.5 yards was outside the top 30 quarterbacks this season. This shift towards shorter throws is a reflection of the Chiefs' lack of reliable deep threat. Mahomes has had to adjust his style to his current receiving corps. Nonetheless, Kansas City ranked second in pass plays per game, all while boasting the sixth-best average score differential in the league. The Chiefs were tenth in the NFL in offensive touchdowns per game.

The Bills' offense has been excellent under new Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, who took over in November. Buffalo has subtly shifted towards a more balanced offense from their pass-heavy scheme earlier in the year. While still slightly faster and more pass-heavy than league average, the Bills finished the season just sixteenth in pass plays per game—and the offense was better for it. This ranking can partly be attributed to their tendency to protect early leads, and despite nearly missing the playoffs entirely, finished the regular season with the fifth-best average score differential. Quarterback Josh Allen has re-unlocked his dual-threat capabilities, but still ranks above average in deep pass attempts per game and red zone passes per game. The team also had the seventh-most quarterback rushes per game, and again the result has been fireworks. The Bills come into this game fifth in the NFL at 3.1 touchdowns per game.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Mahomes’ season was a departure from his typically stellar standards. And yet, he managed to stay above-average in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), and top 10 in true drive success rate. However drops and turnovers plagued multiple performances this season, reflected in his mediocre expected points added (EPA) per game, by far the lowest of his career. Mahomes was a middling 18th in AYA and a surprising 28th in Production Premium. Some advanced metrics saw him as the same old Mahomes: he was top-10 in QBR true completion percentage. He still had the 10th most passing touchdowns in the league and averaged a respectable 24 rush yards per game, allowing him to sneak into the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Most franchises would do anything possible to secure a quarterback whose peak is as good as Mahomes’ “down” year.

Allen’s role is arguably the most valuable in fantasy football and maybe even all of real football as well. Allen threw the fifth-most pass attempts, amassed the most air yards, and it resulted in the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Allen also notched the most rushing touchdowns of any signal-caller. In total, Allen was accountable for 45 of the Bills' touchdowns this year, the most in the NFL. And he remained efficient amidst this massive volume, with the seventh-best EPA per game, and a top-12 true drive success rate.

He certainly didn’t look rusty in the divisional round either, as he dominated the Steelers in the team’s Wild Card win. Allen’s 52-yard rushing last Monday was the longest of his career. This blend of volume, efficiency, and elite rushing has propelled Allen to a near-untouchable place in fantasy football. He has the highest floor and highest ceiling of any player by a sizeable margin.