Divisional Round Single-Game NFL DFS: Packers and 49ers Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 19, 2024

Divisional Round Single-Game DFS: Packers at 49ers

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown of a thrilling NFC Divisional Round matchup between the Packers and 49ers. The Packers head west to San Francisco after a stunning and resounding victory over the Cowboys, and look like they’ve found yet another superstar quarterback in Jordan Love. Meanwhile, the 49ers flexed on the league for much of the regular season, earning the NFC’s top seed, but have looked fallible of late. With both coaches running the same offensive scheme and highly familiar with one another, this game promises to be a strategic chess match. Let’s dive into top plays and key strategies for this one-game DFS slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Packers (20.5) @ 49ers (30); Over/Under 50.5

The Green Bay Packers secured a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth, then upset the second-seeded Cowboys with a score that few could have predicted: a resounding 48-32 drubbing. That marked their fourth consecutive win and their seventh win out of their last nine. By all indications, the Packers have morphed into an offensive powerhouse. While maintaining a balanced approach in terms of run-pass splits and an average pace, they tend to confuse defense with motion and deception rather than passing and pace. Love and the Packers have, however, been one of the most pass-happy teams in the red zone this season, to masterful effect. They’ve scored the most offensive touchdowns per game of any team over the last month.

On the other side, the San Francisco 49ers, despite an NFC-best 12-5 record, have shown some cracks in the armor of late. Their December games revealed vulnerabilities on defense, highlighted by the team conceding 29 against the Cardinals (in a win) and then 33 points against the Ravens (in a bad loss). Their offense, of course, remains a force to be reckoned with. The 49ers lean heavily on the run and play at a much slower pace, focusing on misdirection and timing. They average fewer deep passes per game than the league average and aren’t particularly pass-happy in the red zone either. And yet, even though they ranked dead last in pass plays per game and had the second-slowest overall pace, Purdy threw the third most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, they led the NFL with 3.5 offensive touchdowns per game during the regular season.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Jordan Love's performance over the last month of the season has been simply fantastic. He hasn’t thrown an interception in five consecutive games, and he’s only thrown one since Week 11. He’s thrown 12 touchdowns in that same span. Love's had at least 250 passing yards in his last three games and averaged a season-high 13 yards per attempt in the victory over the Cowboys. Love finished the season well above average in true drive success rate and top 10 in QBR, adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), and expected points added (EPA) per game. Despite little rushing upside, averaging less than 15 rush yards per game, Love finished the regular season fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game.

Surrounded by an embarrassment of talent, Brock Purdy's stellar play generated MVP buzz for much of the season, though his performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 16 might have dampened his chances. Purdy finished 2023 in the top five in true drive success rate and in EPA per game, where he topped the entire NFL. Purdy was number one in true passer rating, QBR, total EPA, and adjusted yards per attempt. His rushing game, like Love, isn’t a prominent part of his game, as he averages just 2.4 attempts per game, but that hasn’t stopped him from consistent fantasy production. Even playing alongside Christian McCaffrey, one of the most prolific running backs of this era, Purdy still ranked sixth at his position in fantasy points per game.