Divisional Round Single-Game NFL DFS: Texans and Ravens Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 19, 2024

Divisional Round Single-Game DFS: Texans at Ravens

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Divisional Round showdown breakdown for Saturday's AFC battle between the Houston Texans and top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. The Texans, riding high off a dominant Wild Card win over the Browns, bring their 10-7 regular season record and a surprise AFC South title to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that, after locking up the top seed in the AFC, will have enjoyed a 20-day rest period for their essential players.

When we last saw Baltimore's starters, they were executing a 56-19 demolition of the Dolphins, and the books are suggesting a similar scenario could be in store this Saturday, with the Ravens favored by nearly 10 points. Still, with a ton of firepower on both offenses, this should be an exciting single-game DFS slate. Let’s dig into the top plays and key strategies.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Texans (17) @ Ravens (26.5); Over/Under 43.5

The Texans' offense is league-average in pass rate and pace of play in neutral game scripts. They ranked 12th in pass plays per game and seventh in overall pace during the regular season, so they do pick up the tempo when trailing. Quarterback C.J. Stroud, likely the rookie of the year, averages 3.9 deep attempts and 4.3 red zone attempts per game, both again mirroring league averages.

Notably, Houston's offensive touchdowns per game have risen to 2.7 over their last three contests, a solid step up from their season-long average. Still, they face a formidable challenge against a Ravens defense that—while losing cornerback Marlon Humphrey to injury—remains immensely talented at all levels. Baltimore was third-toughest for opposing in adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks during the regular season.

In contrast, the Ravens exhibit a more methodical approach, operating at a league-average pace but leaning heavily on their rushing attack in neutral situations. Ranking 31st in pass plays per game and 28th in overall pace, Lamar Jackson’s offense can accelerate when necessary, but many times haven't often needed to, given their league-leading average scoring differential in 2023.

Lamar Jackson, the likely league MVP, throws deep and red zone pass attempts at a league-average rate but has led the Ravens to a league-best 4.3 offensive touchdowns per game in his last three outings. While Houston’s defense has been steadily improving all season, and completely outwitted Joe Flacco and the Browns in the Wild Card round—they ranked third-worst in aFPA to quarterbacks during the regular season.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Texans' rookie signal-caller C.J. Stroud has been a revelation, particularly in the latter part of the season. His ascent was key in the Texans snatching the AFC South title from the Jaguars and subsequently dominating the Browns last weekend. Stroud's completion percentage versus expected (CPOE) might be slightly below average, but his true drive success rate and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game were notably above average.

Stroud finished 2023 fourth in total EPA and second in adjusted yards per attempt, he also claimed the seventh spot in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks despite little-to-no rushing upside and without the services of rising star Tank Dell. Against a formidable Browns defense, Stroud delivered a career-highlight performance, averaging 13 yards per attempt with three touchdown passes, netting 23 fantasy points on just 22 total opportunities

On the other side, Lamar Jackson has been phenomenal all season, and the likely MVP dazzled in his last outing, a Week 17 win where he averaged an unholy 15.3 yards per pass attempt and 7.0 yards per rush. Over the last month of the season, Jackson topped the charts in true drive success rate and was fifth in EPA per game. His advanced metrics cement his MVP status, as he finished fourth in Quarterback Rating (QBR). third in total EPA, third in adjusted yards per attempt, and best among quarterbacks in rush yards per game. That propelled him to to third-most fantasy points per game at his position. Houston’s defense, despite obvious recent improvements, still ranked third-worst (easier for opposing offenses) in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks during the regular season.