Week 4 Thursday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Sep 28, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Lions at Packers

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Thursday Night Football showdown breakdown, where the 2-1 Lions and 2-1 Packers face off for a chance at an early lead in the NFC North. Both teams have their starting running backs returning, and the Packers get an additional boost with star receiver Christian Watson back in the lineup. Let's dive into this intriguing matchup and see how we can get an edge in DFS for this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

Lions (-1.5, 23.75) @ Packers (+1.5, 22.25); Over/Under 45.5

While both teams have the potential to light up the scoreboard, they each prefer a slower-paced, game-management style of play. Neither team leans heavily on the pass unless the game script forces them to, and both are below the league average in neutral game pass rate and neutral game pace.

The Packers, with the return of Christian Watson, could look to spark their offense with more efficient plays. However, it's important to remember that both teams will likely stick to their run-focused, clock-managing strategies unless pressed by the other. A high-scoring affair seems unlikely but far from impossible.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Jared Goff hasn't been the epitome of efficiency this season, but the Lions aren't complaining given their two wins in three tries. Goff's completion percentage vs. expectation is slightly above average, but his per-drive and per-game metrics are less impressive. He's a quarterback who can have huge spike weeks, but those usually come in fast-paced, high-scoring affairs—something this matchup doesn't promise on paper.

Jordan Love, still a work in progress, has shown flashes of potential this season, despite his less-than-stellar accuracy. With the fifth-lowest CPOE among QBs this season, Love is almost certainly leaving plays on the field. However, his EPA per game is just outside the top 10, signaling he's more than serviceable for the Packers' style of play, and his comeback efforts in a Week 3 win vs. the Saints was extremely encouraging for his overall development. With the return of Christian Watson, Love could have a more efficient game, potentially elevating his DFS value.