Week 6 London Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 14, 2023

Week 6 London Single-Game DFS: Ravens vs. Titans

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for this week's international affair, where the Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans duke it out at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the final London game of the season. The Ravens come into this game with a 3-2 record, neck and neck with the Steelers in the AFC North, and with the added advantage of getting healthier on offense, as no wide receivers are listed on the injury report. The Titans, on the other hand, at 2-3 and looking lost for much of the season, sit just one game back of first in a tightly contested but highly mediocre AFC South. They'll have to navigate this game without the services of their wide receiver Treylon Burks, who will miss his third straight game. Let's dive into the intricacies of this slate to identify some unique strategies for DFS players in this single-game scenario.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Ravens (-4.5, 22.25) vs. Titans (+4.5, 18.75); Over/Under 42 (Neutral Location, London)

The Ravens come in as the favorites with an implied total of 23.25 points, which has a ton to do with their defense, which ranks in the top six in both pass and rush defense DVOA. This defensive dominance is compounded by the Titans' mediocre offense, ranking 18th in rush DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA. The Ravens offense has been more slow and steady than explosive this season, ranking 25th in pace of play and 31st in team pass plays per game. However, this can at least be partially explained by game script, as the Ravens have been up by an average of 4.8 points on any given play this season.

On the Titans' side, the game script looks less promising, as their implied total sits at a lackluster 18.75 points. The Titans are also dead last in terms of pace of play. They're passing at a rate that is right in line with the league average in neutral games cripts, but rank 30th in team pass plays per game. You could say there's some silver lining in the aggressive amount of deep-ball attempts from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but he has been wildly inaccurate with those, ranking among the worst in the league in deep ball completion percent. Adding to the Titans' woes is their defense, which has been a pass funnel for most of the season, ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA, but then suddenly got exposed on the ground by the Colts in Week 5.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Lamar Jackson has flashed his incredibly high ceiling in the first part of the 2023 season and has done more as a passer this year than in years past. He has two performances of 25-plus DraftKings points, including one that breached the 30-point mark already, and while some underlying passing metrics appear middling, he ranks top-15 in QBR, true passer rating, and yards per attempt, signs of continued improvement as a decision maker. His accuracy metrics tell a story of a quarterback being let down by his receiving corps, who have dropped the fourth most passes in the NFL. Jackson's completion percentage vs. expectation ranks fourth best in the NFL, his red zone completion percentage is second best, and he's sixth best in completion percentage from a clean pocket. Still, the aspect that sets Jackson apart remains his rushing ability. He averages 1.5 rushes inside the 20 per game and leads all quarterbacks in total rush yards and rush touchdowns. A ceiling performance is very much in play for the former MVP in this game.

Ryan Tannehill has been struggling, to put it mildly. He has yet to surpass 300 yards in any game this season and has hit the 20 DraftKings point mark just once, and he's scored fewer than 15 DraftKings points in three out of five games. He ranks outside the top 20 in adjusted yards per attempt, true passer rating, and QBR, and is languishing outside the top 30 in fantasy points per game. The one glimmer of hope is his propensity for deep throws, as his air yards per attempt of 9.5 yards is the second-highest in the NFL. He has the most total throws of 20-plus air yards. Unfortunately, his deep throws have been more dangerous to his own team than to opponents, as he's third worst in the NFL with 11 passes charted as interceptable by PlayerProfiler.