2024 NFL Mock Draft: Ryan Noonan's 1.0
It's Mock Draft Season, and I'm excited to submit V1 of my 2024 NFL Mock Draft. We're a little less than two months away from Round 1, one of the year's best betting events. Hopefully, the sportsbooks get on board here and unleash a more extensive menu for us to bet on, and we'll be ready when they do.
We've been diving deep into the draft weekly on Move The Line, so check that out if you've missed it. Connor and Scott have also knocked out mock drafts, and we'll continue to sharpen our positions as Round 1 approaches.
This is a mock draft of what I think will happen, not what I would do. Leading up to the NFL Draft, I comb through as much information as possible, focusing on a handful of reputable sources, while also understanding front-office draft tendencies and positional needs to try and figure out where players will land. I do this so our subscribers can have another successful year betting on the draft. This has been a very profitable venture for us over the past three seasons here at 4for4, and I'm hoping you come along and join us.
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2024 Draft NFL Draft Date & Time
Date: Thursday, April 25 (Round 1), Friday, April 26 ( Rounds 2 & 3) & Saturday, April 27 (Rounds 4-7)
Time: 8:00 PM EST (Round 1), 7:00 PM EST (Rounds 2 and 3), & 12:00 PM EST (Rounds 4-7)
Channels: NFL Network, ESPN & ABC, and FuboTV Livestream
2024 NFL Mock Draft
1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Everything about this makes sense. Resetting the clock on a rookie contract is the right thing to do, even if you think Justin Fields and Caleb Williams are equals. Few think that's the case.
Positional Needs: QB, WR, EDGE, DT, OL
2. Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
We've come out of the combine with an increasingly loud drumbeat that Jayden Daniels is closer to Caleb Williams than North Carolina's Drake Maye, the presumed challenger to Williams's seat atop this draft all season long. While their play styles are drastically different, Daniels's rise after one season resembles that of former LSU quarterback and eventual no. 1 overall selection Joe Burrow.
Positional Needs: QB, CB, EDGE, OL, WR
3. New England Patriots - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
The Patriots have a ton of needs, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but nothing else matters if you don't have an answer at quarterback. Maye's 2023 season wasn't as crisp as parts of his 2022 campaign were, but his supporting cast had a lot to do with that. There's big-time arm talent here, and while he might not be Josh Allen, he can make plays with his legs out of structure and extend plays due to his size and athleticism.
Positional Needs: QB, WR, OL, TE, EDGE
4. Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
With three quarterback-needy teams ahead of them, this draft couldn't have played out better for the Arizona Cardinals. Marvin Harrison Jr. handled the combine like an alpha because that's what he is. With Marquise Brown likely headed elsewhere during free agency, Marvin Harrison Jr. fits a glaring hole on this Arizona Cardinals offense. He's -650 to be the first non-QB taken for a reason. Folks dishing out "Malik Nabers WR1" takes are trying too hard.
Positional Needs: EDGE, DT, CB, WR, LB, OL
5. Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I'm not sold on the Chargers taking an offensive lineman over a wide receiver in this spot, and I'm also not sold that they stay here at pick No. 5, either. I am starting to buy into the consensus around Joe Alt being the top offensive lineman in this class, though. After an absolutely sick display of size-adjusted athletic testing in Indianapolis over the weekend, Alt solidified a clear gap in his prospect profile versus his peers. Pairing Alt with 2021 first-round pick Rashawn Slater gives Jim Harbaugh the building blocks upfront as he revamps this Chargers roster.
Positional Needs: OL, CB, DT, TE, LB
6. New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants are in a tough spot. They need offensive difference-makers to support Daniel Jones, but they don't seem to believe that Jones is the right answer or that he can stay healthy long enough to find out. It's hard to argue with that logic. These are self-inflicted wounds, though, born out of the hubris that came with late-season wins in 2022. Jones's contract extension is a piece of this puzzle, as is the fact it's unlikely that they can get into the top 3 to select one of Williams, Daniels, or Maye. Selecting Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, the consensus fourth quarterback in this year's class, with this pick is an omission of failure that few teams are willing to make. If the Giants are running it back with Jones in 2024, protecting him with an offensive tackle or giving him a big-bodied, explosive talent like Nabers is the right approach.
Positional Needs: WR, OL, CB, DT, RB
7. Tennessee Titans - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
A number of teams in this section of the draft have competing needs that align perfectly with the strengths of this year's draft class. The Titans need offensive weapons and linemen that can protect second-year starter Will Levis. New head coach Brian Callahan's old team, the Cincinnati Bengals, was presented with a similar situation a few years ago when deciding between Ja'Marr Chase and Penei Sewell. There was no wrong answer, but in the end, I don't think Callahan was disappointed with the decision that Cincinnati's front office made.
Former Raiders head coach Bill Callahan, Brian's dad, is joining his son in Tennessee after coaching the offensive line in Cleveland for the past few seasons. Bill is regarded as one of the best offensive line coaches in the game, routinely able to get more out of less, so addressing a glaring need at wide receiver for the team's young signal caller is optimal. Player Take Alert: I'd take Odunze ahead of Nabers.
Positional Needs: WR, CB, OL, EDGE, RB
8. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
This pick is contingent on the Falcons adding either Kirk Cousins or Justin Fields, which seems likely. Otherwise, they're very much in play for a J.J. McCarthy.
Falcons, fans. When a member of your defense tackles the opposing quarterback behind the line of scrimmage, that's called a sack. You probably know about it because you watched it happen to Desmond Ridder a bunch last season, and you were probably wondering why your defense never tried it. Well, Dallas Turner can help. This is a BAD, BAD man.
Positional Needs: QB, EDGE, CB, WR
9. Denver Broncos (trade with CHI) - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I don't believe that Sean Payton will enter Year 2 of this reclamation project with the Broncos without a young quarterback to build around. The Broncos don't have a lot of 2024 draft capital to make this deal happen, so they'll likely have to give up future 2025 picks to make it work.
Positional Needs: QB, EDGE, CB, DT, OL
10. New York Jets - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Replacing unrestricted free agent left tackle Mekhi Becton is a priority for the Jets this offseason. I'll be interested to see if they take a swing at an offensive lineman early in free agency because adding a pass catcher like Brock Bowers or Brian Thomas Jr. would make a lot of sense, too. In short, I'm not running to lay the -250 or so that's available now on the Jets to take an offensive lineman with their first selection. Let's see how this shakes out.
Positional Needs: OL, WR, SS, EDGE
11. Minnesota Vikings - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
I think the Vikings would love to sit here and let J.J. McCarthy fall to them, but that seems increasingly unlikely as the days go by. Their opinion on Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. become noteworthy in this scenario. Do they take a shot at one of them here, or can they maneuver a trade back and take one of them later in Round 1?
Defensive end Danielle Hunter is set to hit the open market, and his 18 sacks last season will leave a hole in Brian Flores's defense if the two sides can't reach an agreement in the coming weeks. Verse could slide in and make an impact on Day 1.
Positional Needs: QB, EDGE, CB, WR, LB
12. Chicago Bears (via trade with DEN) - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
"We already have Cole Kmet," he said, crying into his Portillo's chocolate cake shake.
The game is changing, and locking a player in a box based on the positional tag next to his name is fairly archaic, albeit still commonplace among NFL front offices. Yes, Brock Bowers is a tight end, something he'll be reminded of when he's looking to negotiate his second contract, but more importantly, he's a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
The offensive line struggled to stay healthy last season but has performed better than the average fan would guess over the past two seasons. Sacks are a quarterback stat, and Justin Fields's propensity to hold on to the ball too long was the root cause of Chicago's protection problem. It's a need that can be addressed later and not worth skipping over Bowers for, in your humble narrator's opinion.
Positional Needs: QB, WR, EDGE, DT, OL
13. Las Vegas Raiders - Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
Although the Raiders have a plethora of needs, pairing an interior disruptor like Byron Murphy next to Maxx Crosby would be a home run pick for head coach Antonio Pierce's defense. Three of the top four defensive linemen from 2023's team are free agents, so selecting Murphy also addresses a depth issue at the position.
The Raiders are also in the market for an offensive lineman, and selecting the first cornerback is also on the table.
Positional Needs: QB, OL, CB, DT, RB
14. New Orleans Saints - JC Latham, OT, Alabama
It appears the Saints swung and missed on 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning, who couldn't even crack the starting lineup last season. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk just had knee surgery, and starting left tackle Andrus Peat is a free agent, so if the Saints don't make a move in the free-agent window, I'd expect them to address the tackle position with their first-round pick. Latham is a top-ten talent and has shown the ability to play multiple positions along the line.
Positional Needs: OL, EDGE, CB, WR, DT
15. Indianapolis Colts - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Colts GM Chris Ballard has a history of prioritizing traits and athleticism, and I think that shows up here with his selection of Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. Alabama's Terrion Arnold is the consensus top cornerback in this year's draft class, but Mitchell is closing the gap after his electric performance at the combine. This isn't a knock on Arnold, but more a notice that the Mitchell steam is real.
Positional Needs: CB, WR, DT, EDGE
16. Seattle Seahawks - Troy Fautanu, IOL, Washington
The Seahawks' offensive line struggled last season because tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas missed large chucks of the season, but the interior of their offensive line also underperformed. All three 2023 starters are free agents, and Washington's fleet-footed Troy Fautanu is an outstanding mix of value and positional need. He has incredible quickness for a big man and forced himself into the middle of the first round with his performance at the combine.
Positional Needs: OL, EDGE, LB, TE
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Jaguars get a gift, with Terrion Arnold falling to them at pick no. 17. The Jaguars' defense was a disappointment last season, and they tried multiple late-round first and second-year players at cornerback and struggled to find an answer. Arnold comes in and solidifies an outside cornerback spot in new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen's defense.
Positional Needs: CB, OL, DT, WR
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
I wouldn't be surprised if some teams have Taliese Fuaga ahead of some of the offensive linemen already mocked in this draft, but if he's available at this spot for the Bengals, he feels like a no-brainer selection. He's an immediate fill-in for departing right tackle Jonah Williams, and his versatility and athleticism will allow him to swing to the left side eventually if need be.
Positional Needs: OL, DT, CB, WR, TE
19. Los Angeles Rams - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The 2023 Rams pieced together a secondary of young Day 3 picks and castaways from other teams. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris did a great job at making lemonade out of lemons and parlayed his mastery into a head coaching job in Atlanta, but it's time that the Rams add a true top-tier cornerback. Wiggins was already projected to go in the first round, and then he went out and ran a 4.29 40-yard dash at the combine, the best number of any cornerback in the class. This is the first time the Rams will pick in the first round since 2016 (Jared Goff).
Positional Needs: CB, EDGE, S, OL
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
I have the Steelers going back to the well and grabbing another mountain of a man from the University of Georgia to anchor one of their tackle spots for years to come. The Steelers added Broderick Jones in last year's draft but still have a need along the offensive line. Dan Moore Jr. played 580 snaps at tackle for Pittsburgh last season and ranked dead-last in PFF's pass-blocking game among tackles who played at least 50% of the team's 2023 snaps. If they address the offensive line in free agency, I'll have them select a cornerback in mock draft 2.0.
Positional Needs: CB, QB, OL, WR
21. Miami Dolphins - Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
Mike McDaniel's quick-hitting offense is predicated on timing, and the entire house of cards collapses if they can't keep Tua Tagovailoa in a clean pocket. Miami's three interior offensive line starters are all free agents, and adding JPJ adds youth and flexibility to the Dolphins' biggest off-season need. Adding a cornerback is also firmly in play.
Positional Needs: OL, CB, LB, DT, EDGE
22. Philadelphia Eagles - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Similar to Miami at pick 21, I'm back and forth on offensive lineman or cornerback for the Eagles at pick 22. Guyton is a bit raw but a terrific athlete in a big 6'7" frame. Lane Johnson's in the final stretch of a hall-of-fame career, and passing the torch to a fellow Boomer Sooner makes a ton of sense.
Positional Needs: OL, CB, LB, EDGE, S
23. Houston Texans - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
I don't believe the gap between Brian Thomas Jr. and his LSU teammate Malik Nabers is this wide. While Nabers is clearly more explosive, Thomas Jr. is no slouch athletically. You can make the case that Thomas Jr.'s 4.34 40-yard dash time, at 6'3" and 209 pounds, was the most impressive wide receiver performance we saw in Indy. This is another spot where cornerback is in play, but surrounding C.J. Stroud with talented playmakers is a wise way to attack this rookie contract window that the Texans are currently in. I think Thomas is a borderline top-10 talent, so getting him at pick 23 is a steal.
Positional Needs: CB, WR, RB, TE, S
24. Dallas Cowboys - Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Graham Barton's ability to play anywhere along the offensive line is going to lock in him as a first-round pick. The Cowboys need to get younger up front and have holes to address along the line, with Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz set to enter free agency. I think Dallas drafting a cornerback is more likely than the current price on DraftKings (+425), but I believe the offensive line is the priority.
Positional Needs: OL, CB, DT, RB, LB
25. Green Bay Packers - Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
I'm surprised that early mock drafts don't have Kamari Lassiter as a consensus first-round pick, but he flashed elite agility and fluidity at the combine, pairing testing numbers with game tape that's as good as anyone in this class. Lassiter's a willing and able tackler, too, something that's not always a given at the position, along with the ability to play man or zone coverage in new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme. General manager Brian Gutekunst has shown an affinity for drafting University of Georgia defensive players over the past few years, and doing it again here makes a ton of sense.
Positional Needs: CB, OL, DT, S, RB
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
We'll likely hear that some teams left Laiatu Latu off of their draft board because of medical concerns after he medically retired in 2020 after a severe neck injury, but he was a big winner at the combine because reports came back clear with no long-term concerns. Whoever lands Latu is getting an explosive, relentless athlete. His 2023 game tape is better than any of his peers, and he ran fast and weighed in heavier than anticipated.
Positional Needs: OL, EDGE, LB, DT, RB
27. Arizona Cardinals - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
You just don't run a 4.49 at 254 pounds and fall out of the first round. Those are the rules. His 1.54 10-yard split is the fastest ever for an EDGE rusher at the combine. He's more athlete than difference-maker at this point, but I'm sure Jonathan Gannon would love the chance to unlock Robinson's immense upside. Arizona ranked 31st in pressure rate last season.
Positional Needs: EDGE, DT, CB, WR, LB, OL
28. Buffalo Bills - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Bills need speed on the outside for Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs had a curious finish to the season, and Gabe Davis never fully unlocked the potential or consistency that he showed on the big stage in that memorable four-touchdown performance against the Chiefs back in the 2021 Divisional Round. Worthy put on a show at the combine, setting the all-time 40-yard dash record with a 4.21-second performance. He pushed himself up from an early second-round pick into the first round in less than 4.3 seconds.
Positional Needs: EDGE, WR, DT, S, RB
29. Detroit Lions - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
A Jones fracture in his right foot prevented Kool-Aid McKinstry from working out at the combine, but he'll reportedly be ready for Alabama's upcoming Pro Day, so it's not a long-term concern. For much of the year, McKinstry was considered the top cornerback in this class, and his 26% forced incompletion percentage ranks fourth in the class, comfortably ahead of his teammate Terrion Arnold. The Lions dealt with a lot of injuries in the secondary last season, but they need to add young talent to the position group, and Kool-Aid fits the bill.
Positional Needs: CB, WR, OL, EDGE, DT
30. Baltimore Ravens - Jer'Zhan (Johnny) Newton, DT, Illinois
The Ravens are notorious for catching a player who's slipped too far, so they'll likely have someone like Laiatu Latu fall into their laps again. Pairing Newton with Justin Madubuike elevates a strength and gives them flexibility if they opt not to resign Madubuike to an extension next offseason.
Positional Needs: OL, EDGE, CB, RB
31. San Francisco 49ers - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
We didn't get to see Cooper DeJean light up the combine, but he could put on a show at his Pro Day and shoot back up the board into the top 20 of this draft, and I wouldn't be surprised. His ability to play any position in the secondary is a bonus, and he's the best tackling defensive back in the class, earning a special place in my heart. He's a slam dunk pick for the 49ers here.
Positional Needs: OL, CB, EDGE, WR, LB
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
Despite being the third-heaviest wide receiver at the combine, Xavier Legette ran the third-fastest 40 (4.39) and posted the second-best vertical (40") in the class. He's a late breakout, but that's just as much of a statistical outlier than these 160-lb speedsters that barely ran faster than Legette did at 221 pounds. There's an A.J. Brown/Deebo Samuel hybrid feel to his game tape, and this size and speed combination would be dangerous in an Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes-led offense.
