Can Jameson Williams Breakout in Fantasy Football in 2024?

An underrated but important task in both the NFL and fantasy football is knowing when to cut your losses on a player. No matter how much capital you invest in someone, sometimes, they might just not be able to live up to their hype. Heading into 2024, I’m keeping a close eye on Lions receiver Jameson Williams as someone who feels like he is in a “prove it” year. Here’s a look at whether Williams is worth drafting in fantasy football this year at his ADP of WR49 and 110th overall.

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An Overview of Williams’ Career

Williams has had a shaky start to his career, to say the least. He came into the league with lofty expectations after the Lions traded up to select him with the 12th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. However, Williams missed most of his rookie year recovering from a torn ACL injury that he suffered in the 2022 College Football National Championship. He played in just six games and had one of the funniest season-long stat lines I’ve ever seen — one catch for 41 yards and a touchdown, and one rush for 40 yards. Williams’ hilariously small rookie sample size is honestly a solid reflection of who he is as a player. Williams is a prototypical big-play threat, with game-breaking speed and fluid route-running ability when healthy.

Williams’ sophomore season also got off on the wrong foot as he was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. When he was reinstated, Williams did play in all of the Lions' remaining regular season games besides Week 18. His production wasn’t anything to write home about — 354 yards on 24 catches, but Williams at least proved he was able to stay healthy, which was a concern considering his injury history and smaller frame. Williams was used as a Swiss Army knife of sorts, spending time in the slot, out wide, and even in the backfield for the Lions in 2023. Fittingly, the only metric Williams finished among the top 10 in was average target depth, reinforcing his home-run hitting archetype.

Williams in the Lions Offense

It’s clear that Williams has the tools to succeed in the NFL, especially in an exciting Lions offense that finished eighth in offensive EPA per play last year and nearly made the Super Bowl. Williams should presumably enter the season as the Lions No. 2 wide receiver behind superstar Amon-Ra St. Brown after Josh Reynolds left in free agency. Williams will also have to compete with tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs for targets.

As you can tell, there are quite a lot of mouths to feed in the Detroit offense and I’m worried that Williams will be left with the short end of the stick. The Lions haven’t been particularly pass-heavy under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — they ranked bottom-10 in neutral down pass rate last year, and I expect the two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Gibbs to continue to be the focal point of this offense. So, I feel like Williams has the makings of being someone more valuable to the Lions in real life than in fantasy. Williams will have some big weeks and his explosiveness will open up the Lions offense, but I imagine it will be quite hard to predict when Williams’ spike weeks will be.

Assessing Williams’ Floor and Ceiling

Overall, Williams is without a doubt a low-ceiling, high-floor player. He may struggle to put things together once again and have another disappointing year. He was the WR81 in fantasy last season, and that still feels in his range of outcomes this year. So, if you draft Williams, know that you run the risk of it being a wasted draft pick — he could just be someone you plug into your lineup during a bye week while praying for a touchdown.

Williams does, however, have a higher ceiling than most players going around him. His unique talent at the receiver position alone sets him apart from his peers, and if he can put together a fully healthy season with some consistent volume, he could offer week-winning upside. As I mentioned above, it will be very difficult to project Williams’ production because of his reliance on big plays, meaning even in his best outcome I anticipate he will be quite inconsistent.

I think that Williams is appropriately priced at his ADP of WR49. You should not draft him with any lofty expectations, but he is a solid high-upside bench wide receiver. If I have a stable receiving corps already, I would take Williams instead of lower-ceiling guys going around him like Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, or Jakobi Meyers. It certainly is possible that you have to punt on Williams early in the season if he isn’t seeing enough volume to consistently produce, but he could also provide value as a spot-starter who could have an explosive performance at any given time.

The Bottom Line

• Jameson Williams has had an up-and-down start to his career and has not lived up to his draft hype so far.
• He will likely be the No. 2 wide receiver for the Lions this season, but faces a lot of target competition and will likely be inconsistent in fantasy this year as a result.
• Williams is a boom-or-bust weekly option in fantasy this season. I would not draft him and expect him to start on my team, but he is a fun high upside selection at WR49 and 110th overall. I would prefer targeting him in best ball formats where week-to-week consistency matters less.