Is George Pickens the Biggest Steal of the 2024 Fantasy Season?

After the Steelers selected him 52nd overall in the 2022 NFL draft, George Pickens has had a relatively impressive start to his career … all things considered. Despite atrocious quarterback play and the target-hogging of Diontae Johnson, Pickens had 801 yards and four TDs as a rookie and then broke out for 1,140 yards (5 TDs) last season. Now with a yet-to-be-determined upgrade at QB — either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields — and the departure of Johnson, Pickens has an unobstructed path towards a re-breakout and big fantasy value in 2024.

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Here Comes the Boom

Last year, Pickens proved that he’s got some of the biggest “boom” upside in the NFL by leading the entire league with 18.1 yards per reception. He logged five 100-yard receiving games — including a 195-yard, 2-TD performance on just four catches against the Bengals — while the entire rest of the Pittsburgh offense managed just one (Pat Freiermuth hit 120). His 2.11 yards per route run was in the upper echelon of wide receivers, right between Tank Dell and DeAndre Hopkins, and he was the only receiver in the league to finish with an aDOT of 13+ yards and 6+ yards after catch per reception (min. 40 targets).

With Diontae Johnson missing four games at the start of the year and tailing off in target share through December, Pickens also stepped up as a true No. 1 receiver. He compiled 33.3% of Pittsburgh’s receiving yards and 38.5% of their receiving touchdowns, putting him on an elite short-list of receivers to account for a third of their team’s production in both categories.

All three of those other names — Hill, Moore, and Lamb — had at least 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns and finished as top-six fantasy wideouts. That’s the kind of upside Pickens has demonstrated if he gets a chance with decent quarterback play … yes, even the play of Justin Fields, who supported Moore’s WR6 campaign last season.

Changing of the Guard

Unfortunately, the aforementioned quarterback struggles severely capped the upside for Pickens and every other Steelers player in 2023, as Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph combined for just 3,421 passing yards and 13 touchdowns. The only team with worse production in both categories last season was the Jets. The last time the Steelers were worse in both categories was all the way back in 2000 under Kordell Stewart. You get the picture.

Pickens himself saw just 72 catchable passes last year (according to PFF), tied with Justin Jefferson for the fewest by any player to hit 1,000+ receiving yards. Incidentally, a quick glance at the numbers for Pickens and Jefferson tells an intriguing story of their own.

To be clear, I’m not trying to say Pickens is as good as Justin Jefferson. Jefferson posted those numbers in just 10 games after all. Still, on roughly the same opportunity (and mostly inferior quarterback play), Pickens kept pace with the elite of the elite, hinting at the kind of fantasy season he could have with 30-40 more targets and better quality to those targets.

Of course, the biggest question will be whether it’s Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center for the 2024 season. Wilson feels like the frontrunner, with an extra decade of experience and a proven track record of success. If he does win the job, I see that as a massive win for Pickens. Wilson has long been one of the more efficient QBs in the league and, believe it or not, is arguably the best at producing fantasy points for his wide receivers on a per-target basis.

Keep in mind on the 2023 data, those other QBs were working with Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle. Wilson had Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Don’t be surprised if Pickens’ ADP sees a solid bump if and when Wilson is announced as the starter. And if it is Fields, regardless of what you may think of him as a passer, it will still be a noted improvement over what Pickens has seen so far in his career (see D.J. Moore, as referenced above).

Why George Pickens?

As of early July, Pickens’ aggregate ADP is around WR29, at the end of a tier with Amari Cooper and Tee Higgins in the late fifth round. That’s three spots lower than he finished last season (WR26) with just about the worst QB play in the NFL and Diontae Johnson averaging close to seven targets when healthy. That makes no sense. I would happily take Pickens over Higgins, Cooper, Zay Flowers, and Malik Nabers (all going ahead of him) to name a few, and it wouldn’t take much for him to jump Michael Pittman Jr., Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and others going in the fourth and earlier fifth.

Let’s just conduct a brief experiment. Through six games last season, Diontae Johnson was limited in the first and the last and missed the four in between, and Kenny Pickett was arguably playing the “best” football of his shortened season. In those six games, Pickens earned a 26% target share (and was the WR19 in points per game). Projecting the Steelers forward into 2024, we can expect between 30-35 pass attempts per game — they’ve averaged 35.1 in the Mike Tomlin era but brought in OC Arthur Smith whose offenses lean heavily on the run. Let’s set the line conservatively at 31 passes per game.

Now plug in a 24% target share for Pickens (strong but realistic, considering the rest of the depth chart) and you’re looking at 126 targets in a full season. Dial in 1.55 fantasy points per target — the average of Wilson’s and Fields’ wide receivers last year — and you get 196 fantasy points. The WR29 over the last five seasons has averaged under 100 targets and 160 fantasy points. A 126-target, 196-point season is more in line with a high-end WR2.

Do you see the issue here? Pickens is being drafted like a mid-range WR3 but realistic projections have him finishing closer to half his ADP. I’m not saying to draft him at WR15, but I will be targeting him in every fifth round and possibly some fourths throughout draft season.

The Bottom Line

• George Pickens has flashed the upside and “boom” potential to be a legitimate WR1 for both the Steelers and for fantasy, posting elite efficiency numbers and dominating Pittsburgh’s production last season.
• With the arrival of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, Pickens will be seeing the best quarterback play of his career in 2024, regardless of who gets the job. If it’s Wilson, Pickens’ value could skyrocket due to Wilson’s track record producing efficient fantasy wideouts.
• While there is risk investing in this offense, that risk is more than baked into Pickens’ WR29 draft price, making him a screaming value at that spot and one of the few guys in the middle rounds with WR1 potential.