Quarterback Sleepers, Values & Breakouts (2024)

Aug 16, 2024

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The quarterback position has something for everyone this season. There are top-tier players who are worthy of a pick in the first five rounds. There are several players in the next tier who offer varying degrees of safety and upside, depending on risk tolerance. And there are quality passers with solid QB1-type upside (i.e. QB6-QB8 upside) available into the 10th round.

More on that later. For now, let’s take a look at last year’s iteration of this article and highlight a few of the hits (and misses).

While my top two “Values” – Geno Smith and Daniel Jones – didn’t exactly pan out, Anthony Richardson flashed superstar potential and Tua Tagovailoa finished as the QB10. Russell Wilson also finished as a low-end QB1 (QB11).
“Even though my model suggests fewer than 30 yards rushing per game, I’m projecting Richardson for roughly 53 yards per game on the assumption that Steichen runs him as much as he did Hurts.” It’s a small sample size, but Richardson averaged 48.0 rushing yards in two full games. When his 136 rushing yards are divided by his total games (roughly 2.6 games, when all the snaps are added up), it yields 52.3 rushing yards per game.
Three of my four “Breakout Candidates” hit in big ways. Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, and C.J. Stroud all finished in the top 12, while Bryce Young…did not.
While not a rookie, as a first-year starter my model projected Jordan Love for 14.2 rushing yards per game, and he averaged 14.5!
My model projected Young and Stroud for 14.9 and 12.3 rushing yards per game, respectively. They averaged 15.8 and 11.1, respectively.
My favorite very late-round quarterback was Sam Howell, and he was the fantasy QB7 (!!!) through Week 12 before the wheels came off.