Terry McLaurin is Primed for a Bounce-Back Season in 2024
The 2023 season was a disaster for the Commanders, starting with a sale of the franchise after embarrassment after embarrassment from the former owner and ending with the entire coaching staff and most of the front office getting fired. With fresh starts and new faces just about everywhere, one constant will be Terry McLaurin. While he only finished as WR33 last year, and the offense can’t possibly be as pass-heavy, there are positive signs for the Washington stalwart.
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New-Look Offense for 2024
It’s hard to fathom being as pass-happy as the Commanders were last season and only having one receiver in the top 50 for fantasy scoring. Still, alas that was the nature of an Eric Bienemy offense with constant rotations and dreadful quarterback play from Sam Howell (PFF’s #33 QB last season). McLaurin played a career-low 85% of snaps in 2023 after being above 90% in his previous four seasons.
In comes Kliff Kingsbury and an entirely new coaching staff. I’ve seen the excitement for the new staff anywhere from buying all-in to believing this is on par with Arthur Smith. The mileage on Kingsbury’s time as an NFL head coach may vary, but we did see an elite fantasy offense in 2021. Ironically, the rushing game was more consistent in Arizona than Kingsbury’s “horizontal raid.” However, all offseason we’ve heard how Kingsbury learned from mistakes made with Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense.
Add to that, in Kingsbury’s four years as a head coach his offenses never finished below 18th in pass attempts (and even finished 4th in 2022). It’s a pretty safe assumption McLaurin will lead the Commanders in targets, barring injury, and if Kingsbury has learned a few things in his time away, he hopefully can find more creative ways to involve McLaurin.
So what does this offensive philosophy mean for McLaurin? Potentially, a lot! One constant from both Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn’s time as head coaches was a heavy reliance on an alpha receiver. Now, McLaurin isn’t quite on prime Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins’ level, but he hasn’t been terribly far off with some questionable coaching and even more questionable quarterback play. Between 2019-2022, McLaurin had never finished below WR24 and even had a WR14 finish in 2022.
So we should expect some positive regression with a new coaching staff and without one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. Currently, he’s being drafted as WR31 on Underdog, which could make him a decent value if he can return to more of a WR2 in fantasy.
Finally an Elite Quarterback?
Ok, so even the insinuation that QB Jayden Daniels might be elite out of the gate (in real life) is probably wishful thinking. However, if you look at the list of quarterbacks that McLaurin has caught a pass from you can talk yourself into a potentially big year for McLaurin if things break right for Daniels. That list of quarterbacks includes:
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Ryan Fitzpatrick (for half of one quarter)
It won't take a lot for Jayden Daniels to be the best quarterback on that list. The argument could be made Jacoby Brissett, who played mop-up duty in a couple of games before taking over as the starter and getting hurt before he could even start, was the best quarterback McLaurin played with in his first five years. That is as sad as it is devastating to write.
With the idea that there is no earthly way for the quarterback play to get worse and a return to his elite snap share, again, you can paint a pretty strong picture for a McLaurin bounce-back in 2024.
Is the Competition As Good As Advertised?
So we know McLaurin is going as WR31 in 2024 drafts. Looking back at 2023, with a worse QB situation and less buzz, he was going as WR32. Jahan Dotson was going ahead of McLaurin in Underdog drafts at the end of the draft season at WR30 and Curtis Samuel was going as WR75. The tight ends were all last-round flier types in drafts last season with the uncertainty around Logan Thomas’ health.
Curtis Samuel is now in Buffalo and Logan Thomas is in San Francisco. Luke McCaffrey was added in the fourth round out of Rice but is a significantly older prospect that some argued was a bit of a reach as a slot receiver. The tight end room is revamped, but it’s still a soon-to-be 34-year-old Zach Ertz and Ben Sinnott, a second-round tight end who is already talked about being used as more of an H-back or fullback.
All that remains as far as serious competition from targets last year is Dotson. However, looking back at his 2023, we certainly aren’t looking at a 1A/1B situation. Dotson is the clear WR2 after posting a disastrous 0.9 yards per route run in 2023, per SIS. Dotson also had a 9.8% drop rate and showed very little after the catch with just a 2% broken tackle + missed tackles forced per reception. I respect Matt Harmon of Yahoo! Sports a lot and he hasn’t lost faith in Dotson, but I think we have to lower the expectations for the former first-rounder significantly.
As far as ADPs are concerned, McLaurin is in a league of his own from the competition on the team. Ben Sinnott is currently TE20, but given camp reports, he might not even be TE1 on the Commanders. Jahan Dotson is WR65 and Luke McCaffrey is WR81 so the market isn’t buying the competition for targets like last year.
All of this, to me, adds up to McLaurin being undervalued at his current ADP. For reference, someone like George Pickens could be available while on the clock and he’ll have none of the advantages McLaurin has as far as coaching and scheme, will have a potentially worse quarterback situation, and will have similar competition around him. Sure, the receivers are better in Washington, but the way Arthur Smith's offenses target running backs will funnel more targets their way and the tight ends are better in Pittsburgh.
When you compare their ADPs, I think there’s a decent case to make for McLaurin when on the clock.
Related: Have We Already Seen Brian Robinson's Fantasy Football Ceiling?
The Bottom Line
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Terry McLaurin has been a perennial WR2 in fantasy, with the upside for a borderline WR1.
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He’s got a new scheme that won’t rotate receivers as much and will make him the focal point of the offense rather than spreading the ball out.
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I’m not as sold on a big upgrade for the offensive coaching staff, but with everything crumbling last season, anything might be an upgrade.
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The quarterback situation cannot possibly be worse (fingers crossed)!
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Looking at the competition around him on the team and around him by ADP, McLaurin looks like a solid value at his WR31 ADP. A strong buy.
