10 Things You Need to Know About Week 10 for Fantasy Football

Let’s check in on the pass rate decisions for NFL teams, starting with a surprise: the Los Angeles Chargers.

Chargers: A New Team Since Their Bye

In the four games prior to the Chargers’ bye, their highest pass rate over expected (PROE) was -7.5%, which is very run-heavy. But in the four games since their bye, their lowest PROE is +1.5%. And so unsurprisingly, the Chargers are dead-center in the graph below. That graph shows PROE for the season on the x-axis and how much PROE fluctuates weekly on the y-axis. But clearly that is understating the Chargers’ new plan. Even with limited receiving weapons, Justin Herbert has been playing exceptionally-well, and the Chargers have been increasingly willing to lean on his arm to win games.

According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert was very productive on his deep-air-yard shots last week, going 7/12 for 196 yards and two touchdowns on passes with over 10 air yards. In line with their PROE, that is now three straight games with 100+ yards on those attempts, after totaling only 145 yards on those throws from Weeks 1-4.

I do think Week 9 specifically is a bit misleading, though. Nearly all of the Chargers’ passing EPA came from two broken-coverage TDs. With that in mind, Quentin Johnston leads the league in percentage of his fantasy points from broken-coverage plays. And it’s not particularly close, according to Fantasy Points. So, this is all to say that I believe in the switch in PROE, I believe in Herbert, but the Johnston points are fluky. Wheels up for Ladd McConkey, though.

Lions: Establishing the Run

Meanwhile, the Lions are moving in the opposite direction of the Chargers. Their highest PROE since their Week 5 bye is -0.7%. They’ve had one week all season with a positive PROE and it was only +0.1%. To their credit, the Lions are leading the league in rushing efficiency this season. The tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has continued to be extremely impressive. However, the lack of passing attempts will make it difficult for Lions’ pass catchers to get home.

The graph below shows Jared Goff’s pass attempts in his first eight games of last season and this season. With the exception of the Week 2 explosion, Goff’s pass attempts have been lower in each game this year versus the same game last year. Goff hasn’t attempted more than 25 passes since Week 2. He hit that mark in every week but one last season.

With that in mind, Amon-Ra St. Brown has exceeded eight targets in only one game this season. It was that Week 2 explosion against the Buccaneers. And their fantasy playoff schedule includes three run-funnel defenses. The opponents of the Bills, Bears, and 49ers have opted to run at above-average rates. Now, the Lions also have one of the most efficient passing games in the league. And because of that, St. Brown has a six-game touchdown streak despite the lack of volume. But he’s getting home despite Goff having the fourth-lowest aDoT among qualifying QBs. That grumble you hear is St. Brown managers in the next few weeks if that TD streak ends. A 5/60/0 line isn’t going to do it for your first-round pick.

Geno “Jameis” Smith

It was an up-and-down performance from Geno Smith in Week 9, to say the least. He had -31 EPA on his three interceptions and seven sacks but generated +27 EPA on his throws that weren’t intercepted. As we saw from the PROE graph above, the Seahawks are putting a lot on Smith’s shoulders. The Seahawks have the second-highest PROE in the league, behind only the Bengals. And that does make sense, as the Seahawks have one of the least efficient rushing attacks in the league. The graph below shows team passing efficiency on the x-axis and rushing efficiency on the y-axis. Only the outlier Raiders and Dolphins have a lower rushing EPA per attempt than the Seahawks.

There are a few surprising things about Smith leading the league in interceptions. The first is that his target depth is slightly below the NFL average. And his turnover-worthy play rate is almost half the NFL average, according to PFF. But sheer volume is a big factor, with Smith leading the league in passing attempts. And pressure is also a huge factor as well. He’s faced the third-highest pressure rate in the league among qualifying QBs. And that’s partially because the Seahawks had the 30th-ranked offensive line heading into Week 9, according to PFF. So, the Seahawks can’t pass protect, can’t run efficiently, and are passing at the second-highest rate in the league. That’s a lot to put on Smith. But at least one of his receivers stepped up in a big way last week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Finally?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an average target depth of 8.2 yards heading into Week 9, which was tied for 154th among all players in the league. He had earned five targets with over 20 air yards for the season, and caught none of them. Well, that changed sharply in Week 9. Smith-Njigba hit a 20.3-yard aDoT, earning 243 total air yards and going 3/5 on his 20+ air-yard targets. Yes, he doubled those targets for the season just in Week 9.

I’ve always thought Smith-Njigba’s use as this low aDoT receiver was strange. And I hoped that with a new coaching staff in town, we’d see more intermediate and deep routes. But that wasn’t the case until last week. The issue I see is that this explosion came without DK Metcalf on the field. My fear is that Smith-Njigba turns back into a pumpkin with Metcalf in the lineup. We’ve seen outlier games like this from Smith-Njigba in the past, where the Seahawks clearly see that he can operate in an expanded role. And then they put him right back into his low-aDoT role the following week. My guess is that happens again, making him more of a sell-high candidate. I hope I’m wrong, though.

Keenan Allen: Better in Points-Per-Target Leagues

Among the 73 WRs with at least 30 targets, Keenan Allen is 69th in yards per target. He’s ahead of Elijah Moore, who suffered through Deshaun Watson at QB, Wan'Dale Robinson operating in an incredibly low aDoT role, Dontayvion Wicks with drop issues, and rookie Adonai Mitchell. He’s technically a positive regression candidate. The table below shows expected fantasy points based on volume and target location versus actual fantasy points. Keenan Allen is a mid-range WR3 in expected fantasy points, but he’s actually scoring about three fantasy points per game below that expectation.

And perhaps he does bounce back in the coming weeks. But it seems like a low-ceiling bet at this point. The Bears offensive line is getting crushed by injuries. A Cardinals defense that was near the league-bottom in pressure rate absolutely wreaked havoc on the Bears’ passing game in Week 9. And Allen still needs to compete against both a rising Rome Odunze and DJ Moore when he’s not walking off the field during a passing play.

Raiders: Bowers, Meyers, and…That’s It

Gardner Minshew was benched again in Week 9. I don’t have mid-game benching stats but Minshew has to be nearing the record. The Raiders plugged Desmond Ridder in his place and the results were unsurprisingly even worse. After that performance, the Raiders fired their offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, a coach they shouldn’t have hired in the first place. The Raiders haven’t committed to a starting QB after their bye, but with the continued benching of Minshew, my bet would be on Ridder.

And that’s bad news for the entire Raiders offense. One small positive is that at least Ridder is aware of his top receivers. Brock Bowers hit a 25% target share and Jakobi Meyers hit a 19% target share on the small sample of Ridder attempts. Meyers has been a quiet winner of the Davante Adams trade. With Adams out of the lineup, Meyers hasn’t seen a target share below 25%. It’s fair to question how valuable those targets will be if Ridder is the QB, though.

DeAndre Hopkins: Forget the Titans

I was high on DeAndre Hopkins coming into the season. He still had some elite metrics in 2023, including an 82 open score from ESPN Analytics, 2.09 yards per route run, 9.5% first downs per route run, and 62 receiving yards per game. Injuries and the state of the Titans’ offense have limited his production this season. But a late-season trade to the Chiefs may have bailed me out. Hopkins was the clear second weapon in the passing game Monday night, putting up an 8/86/2 line. It was the first time in Mahomes’ career that one of his WRs had six or more receptions from the traditional X-WR position.

And it wasn’t a massive aDoT, but Hopkins’ 8.8-yard average target depth was at least reasonable. It’s been an absolute struggle getting Mahomes and the Chiefs to throw the ball beyond six yards this season. Similarly, Mahomes has been unwilling to throw anything into a tight window. But we did see him toss one up into triple-coverage for Hopkins, who came down with a great grab on Monday night. The graph below shows the tight window throw rate on the x-axis and the average throw distance relative to the first down marker on the y-axis. With the addition of Hopkins, hopefully, we see Mahomes be less of an outlier here. Regardless, the Chiefs hitting the “Remember the Titans” touchdown celebration all but assures another Superbowl.

Drake Maye: Rushing and Pop Douglas

Drake Maye’s rushing upside continues to be undersold despite that being a clear part of his profile coming into the league. Against the Titans in Week 9, we got eight carries for 95 yards. And it won’t always be that effective, but he hasn’t had fewer than three carries in games that he’s completed this year. And he’s averaging about 50 rushing yards per game over his last four games.

On the passing front, DeMario Douglas is the only Patriots WR worth your attention. He’s now had four games this season with exactly nine targets. His ultimate line wasn’t great, putting up 7/35/0 on those nine targets in Week 9. But anyone who can earn this level of targets should at least be on your watchlist, particularly in full PPR leagues. He could be a low-ceiling, bye-week fill-in.

WR Injuries: We Picked the Wrong Simulation

A.J. Brown and Drake London leaving Week 9 early continued a brutal trend of WR injuries this season. 2024 was not the season to prioritize WRs in the early rounds. The graph below partially shows the reason why. It is the number of weekly instances where a player at the top of a team’s depth chart was ruled out. For example, Mike Evans in Week 9 counts as one of these instances for WRs. Annoyingly, Chris Godwin does not because he is on Injured Reserve. And because he’s on IR, he’s not on his team’s depth chart.

But I think the point stands even if it’s a bit understated by players like Godwin and Rashee Rice on IR. There’s been a huge spike in important WR injuries this year relative to last year. It’s the second-highest number of important WR injuries of any season since at least 2010. Meanwhile, seemingly every aging RB that changed teams has had a revitalized season.

With that in mind, the playoff advance rate of best ball teams in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania is only 9.1% if they don’t have Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, or Darnell Mooney. That compares to the average advance rate of 16.7%. It speaks to the difficulty of this game. There were many scenarios where Henry, Barkley, and Kamara hit the age cliff and provided nothing to their fantasy managers. But that’s not the scenario we happened to get in 2024. I’m looking forward to seeing the overreaction to this next year.

Week 10 Passing and Rushing Matchups

The Broncos weren’t able to take advantage of a Ravens pass defense giving up explosive plays in Week 9. But the Bengals are much better suited to exploit that weakness in Week 10. I’d imagine we see some fireworks with both the Bengals and Ravens passing offenses in the top-right quadrant.

And the Eagles are in the top-right of both graphs. But with the Cowboys missing Dak Prescott, there isn’t going to be a reason for them to pass the ball. They now have four consecutive weeks with a PROE below -10%. Week 10 will make that five straight.