10 Things You Need to Know About Week 13 for Fantasy Football

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I wanted to start this off by thanking everyone at 4for4. They’ve been incredibly welcoming during my first year here. And thank you to everyone reading this article; I truly appreciate it. Now, let’s get to my snarky NFL thankful list.

I’m Thankful the Sean Tucker Goal Line Experiment Might be Dead

I called out Bucky Irving as a strong start last week and he delivered. In addition to his 87 rushing yards and a touchdown, he earned six receptions and 64 receiving yards. But it could’ve been an even bigger day. Irving was subbed out for Sean Tucker at the 1-yard line twice. This usage was unlike anything we’ve seen this year. In fact, Tucker only has three attempts within his opponents’ 5-yard line, with two of them coming last week. And Tucker was barely used otherwise in Week 12.

Fortunately for Irving managers, Tucker fumbled away one of his goal-line attempts. And with that, I’m hopeful this usage experiment is dead. Additionally, Irving actually out-snapped Rachaad White against the Giants, which was the first time all season with both backs healthy. And in Week 13, the Buccaneers get to play the Panthers. It’s the strongest matchup of the week and 96th percentile over the past decade when looking at offensive rushing EPA vs defensive rushing EPA. Fire up Irving this week and hope Tucker is relegated once again.

I’m Thankful for Thomas Brown

To be fair, the Bears’ new offensive coordinator hasn’t been a revelation. But it’s certainly been much better than what we saw under Shane Waldron. The most noticeable change has been Caleb Williams’ time to throw. From Weeks 1-10, Williams took an average of 3.03 seconds from snap to pass attempt. With Thomas Brown as the playcaller, that has dropped sharply to 2.66 seconds. And a lot of that can be assigned to screens targeting DJ Moore.

Moore has 14 targets over the past two games. Exactly half of those have been designed screens, which is four more than any other Bears receiver. And they’ve been very successful. Moore’s 14 receptions have come with 142 yards after the catch, which is about 100 yards more than either Keenan Allen or Rome Odunze in the past two games. This usage is giving Moore a decent floor but he’s clearly been the third target on his team. Both Allen and Odunze are averaging at least three more targets per game since Thomas Brown took over. So, the designed touches and overall improvement in the offense boost Moore’s floor. But it’s fair to question his ceiling as the third target on the team relying almost exclusively on yards after the catch.

I’m Thankful for Second-Half Malik Nabers

I’m thankful that the Giants remember they have Malik Nabers on their team in the second halves of games. Even with Tommy DeVito at the helm in Week 12, Nabers managed a usable week, turning nine targets into six receptions and 64 yards. But all nine of those targets came in the 2nd half. And that’s the continuation of a trend for Nabers. The graph below shows receiver targets in the 1st halves of games on the x-axis and targets in the second halves of games on the y-axis. You’ll find Nabers in the top-left.

Among receivers with at least 80 targets, Nabers has the largest split between first-half and second-half targets. Now, with the Giants trailing in most games, the increase in pass attempts makes sense. But 23 of the Buccaneers’ 30 points came in the 1st half last week. It’s simply inexcusable that your most talented offensive player isn’t involved at all during that span. When asked about this after the game, Nabers said “I started getting the ball when it’s 30-0, what do you want me to do?”. He’s going to get fed on Thanksgiving.

I’m Thankful for the Cowboy's Defense

It would help Nabers’ case in Week 13 if the Giants moved him around the formation a bit. That’s because their opponent, the Cowboys, has some stark defensive passing splits based on the side of the field. On the season, 45% of opposing offense pass attempts have been to the right side of the field, compared to 35% to the left and 20% to the middle. That’s the 4th-highest share of right-side pass attempts in the league. Similarly, the Cowboys are one of only seven teams with a higher passing EPA allowed to the right side of the field versus the middle.

Now, on the season, Nabers has only seen 31% of his targets on passes to the right side of the field. And that share was similar in Week 4 when the Giants previously played the Cowboys, with 36% of his targets on that side. But I’m hopeful the Giants decide to both target Nabers early and move him around the field in Week 13.

I’m Thankful for Regression

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games. With that, he’s averaging a touchdown for every five targets he earns. That’s about four times higher than the average receiver’s TD rate. This is going to come crashing down soon. The table below sorts all WRs by their expected number of fantasy points. That expectation comes from the location on the field where they earned the target and how many air yards the target had. Westbrook-Ikhine is 94th among all WRs in expected fantasy points per game with 4.4. But he’s actually earned 7.3 points per game with his TD success.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Trey McBride *still* does not have a receiving TD this season. He’s the TE3 in expected fantasy points per game, in a tier with Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce. George Kittle is in his own tier behind them in expected points, but obviously well above everyone in actual points due to his eight touchdowns. McBride faces two tough defenses coming up in the Vikings and Seahawks. But the schedule opens up a lot during the fantasy playoffs, with beatable matchups against the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams. I’m thankful McBride is saving all of his TDs for when it matters.

I’m Thankful for Nico Collins

Early-down rushing attempts have not done the Texans or C.J. Stroud any favors. The graph below shows early-down rushing success rate on the x-axis and average third down distance on the y-axis. You’ll find the Texans in the top-left of the graph. They have the second-worst early-down rushing success rate in the league. And because of that, they have the second-highest average distance to go on 3rd down.

So, the offense mostly relies on Stroud and company to bail them out on long 3rd-down attempts. An offense built around deep pass attempts to Nico Collins can certainly succeed despite the lack of rushing success. But it’s a tough way to get by. Luckily, the Texans get the Jaguars in Week 13. And even with the Texans’ passing offense being slightly below average this season, it’s an 88th-percentile matchup given how susceptible the Jaguars' defense has been to opposing pass attacks. It should be a massive day for Collins assuming he doesn’t get a TD overturned by penalty for the third week in a row.

I’m Thankful for Jaylen Warren’s Health

It’s been a tough year for Jaylen Warren. He missed multiple weeks earlier in the season with a knee injury and his efficiency has clearly been harmed even when active. But Warren had his best fantasy outing of the season in Week 12 against a tough Browns defense. He punched in his first TD of the season in addition to earning a season-high five targets.

Despite continuing to cede more rushing attempts to Najee Harris, Warren’s snaps have been on the rise. Last week, he had 12 more snaps than Harris, crucially running nine more routes and earning two more targets. He was also more efficient on his attempts than Harris last week. The Steelers have a murderers’ row of rush defenses during the fantasy playoffs. They face the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs, who are each bottom-10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. But Warren’s usage and health seem to be trending up.

I’m Thankful Patrick Mahomes is Human

Patrick Mahomes has looked human this year for perhaps the first time in his career. The main talking point is about his interceptions, but those have been fluky. There are only so many times you can bang the ball off of a defensive tackle’s helmet for a pick. But the sacks have been under-discussed. He’s trending to finish in the bottom 10 of QBs in EPA lost due to sacks this season. He has never been close to this mark in his career.

Some QBs, like Mahomes, have an other-worldly ability to avoid sacks when facing pressure. For example, in 2023, Mahomes took a sack on only 10.6% of his pressured dropbacks, which was 2nd-best in the league behind another alien, Josh Allen. But this season has been different. Mahomes’ pressure-to-sack ratio is almost double his 2023 rate at 19.7%. Combine that with a low target-depth passing attack and a rushing attack lacking explosive plays, and you get some offensive issues. Some of this will need to be ironed out before their inevitable Superbowl run.

Week 13 Passing Matchups

As mentioned, the Texans have a fantastic matchup against a vulnerable Jaguars passing defense this week. Similarly, it should be a big week for Mike Evans and the Buccaneers passing attack. Their matchup against the Panthers is 90th-percentile over the past decade when looking at offensive rushing EPA vs defensive rushing EPA. They similarly have an 88th-percentile matchup when looking at success rate and an 89th-percentile matchup when looking at completion percentage over expected (CPOE). The one downside here is that teams typically run on the Panthers at one of the highest rates in the league.

Week 13 Rushing Matchups

I talked about Bucky Irving’s fantastic matchup at length above. The Giants technically have the 2nd-best rushing matchup on the week, but there is obvious concern about the entire offense with either Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock at the helm. Otherwise, expect strong performances from Alvin Kamara, James Cook, and both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Meanwhile, it’s a very tough spot for James Conner after he struggled to get going last week.