Monotone's Week 13 Best Bets: Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bets
First and foremost, Happy Thanksgiving to anyone reading this, really appreciate the support on this article this season! Last week, we saw a ton of notable matchups that resulted in some ugly games. We walked away with some small profit after all the chaos, which is all you can ask for at the end of the day. This holiday week is one of the most fun for betting all year long, and I look forward to adding some winners to Turkey Day. After 12 full weeks, we are currently sitting at 80-50 +17u (61.6%), and I look forward to building on that right now!
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Week 13 NFL Player Props
D.J. Moore o4.5 receptions -114 FD
+1 with Noonan
D.J. Moore's aDOT is down to 1.9 yards over the last two weeks with Thomas Brown, a pretty insane number compared to his prior regular season production. When asked about it, Brown highlighted wanting to get him the ball in open space.
“That guy’s pretty dynamic when you get the ball in his hand, so whether it’s screens, quick game throws, vertical down the field throws — any way to get that guy in space, I’m all about.”
He has the most yards after catch in the NFL during that span, don’t see any reason why they would turn away from this after recording 7 catches in both games, including multiple targets from the backfield. They are 10 point dogs and once against a tough rushing matchup, Williams will be forced to throw and they need to get the ball out quickly to mitigate mistakes, Moore will benefit.
Risk 1.14u to win 1u - 114 FD, -120 ESPN, -130 365
Caleb Williams o31.5 rushing yards -110
With a huge coaching swing, one of the first things anyone with eyes noticed was the increased rushing usage for Williams. He averaged 2 scrambles per game with Waldron but that’s jumped to 5 in each of his two starts. In addition to that, we’ve seen designed run usage, which we just saw the Colts and Anthony Richardson use to a lot of success late last week. Lions, on paper, allow the 15th most QB rushing yards but haven’t really played many actually mobile QBs, so even at a high number, I think there is some value with a defense known for struggling to contain mobile QBs.
Even before the coaching shift Williams had success running vs man coverage. Posted he had 56 rushing yards vs JAX who is ranked 2nd in man coverage rate (40.9%) & 47 vs WAS who is ranked 8th (32%). He now gets a Lions team that runs more man coverage than anyone else in the NFL. Should be playing from behind all game which will lead to increased drop backs.
Risk 0.83u to win 0.75u - 29.5 Rivers, 30.5 MGM, 31.5 FD/365/ESPN, 32.5 CZCR, playable to 32.5
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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