Week 13 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

Week 12 was a good one, with official plays finishing 6-3 on the week, and Thanksgiving kicked off Week 13 right, with a 2-0 start. We chat about a lot of other things in the Discord during the week and lead up to kick-off, so again, don't forget to get in there.

I spend a lot of time analyzing defensive performance, and the majority of my props land on that side of the ball. I'll also mix in some "traditional" offensive props but expect to see more defense than offense from me this season. The power of our community moves these lines very quickly, so if you're waiting for tackle props to pop in here first, you'll be missing the best line and price on every play.

This year, we will be playing widely available props a bit earlier in the week, knowing that the available limits at that time still serve most of our audience and their budgets. The landscape has changed and we're adapting to change with it to better serve our subscribers. All of our plays come with detailed write-ups and are either at multiple books or have significant limits that can withstand a release late in the week.

You can scoop up a 4for4 betting subscription for as little as $10 with a deposit at one of our partners' sites! Reach out if you have any questions.

Lines and prices are accurate when posting on Discord.

Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bets

Courtland Sutton (DEN) Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

The Browns have struggled against opposing WR1s this season, ranking 28th in DVOA, allowing 81.7 yards per game, the third-most in the league. Cleveland has employed man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, ranking among the top five at nearly 40%. However, in man coverage, they are among the bottom 10 teams in terms of yards allowed per coverage target (8.2) and yards allowed per reception (13.0). Meanwhile, Sutton has a target rate of 27% against man coverage, a spike in targets compared to his 21.3% target share against zone coverage.

Since Week 7, the Browns have allowed the second-highest rate of explosive pass plays at 19.7%, so Sutton's longest reception (21.5 yards) is also a viable look. Since his volume has been so consistent, with no fewer than eight targets in the past five weeks, surpassing 97 receiving yards in three of the last five games, I'm choosing to play his receiving yards instead.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Cooper Kupp (LAR) Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

The Saints' secondary has really struggled since losing Paulsen Adebo for the season and trading Marshon Lattimore. Since Week 7, the Saints have allowed the fifth-highest rate of explosive pass plays. They've really struggled against slot WRs of late. Over the past few weeks, we've seen JuJu Smith-Schuster (130), Chris Godwin (130), Ladd McConkey (111), Drake London (97), and Jerry Jeudy (142) cook the Saints while working primarily out of the slot.

Saints slot corner Ugo Amadi is the culprit here. On average, the slot is targeted once every 5.97 snaps, but Amadi is being targeted once every 3.7 snaps, the highest rate in the league. He's also allowing the highest rate of receptions (4.8 snaps vs. 8.4 avg) and yards per snap (2.0 vs. 1.2).

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

We touched on Brian Thomas Jr. a bit on this week's Prop Drop. His arrow is pointing up coming out of Jacksonville's Week 12 bye. First, Trevor Lawrence is back under center for Jacksonville, with (somehow still) head coach Doug Pederson saying, “He’s full go. We put a full game plan together. Basically, just things that he wants, he likes. Good for our offense and let him go play. So, nothing’s held back.”

Thomas Jr. is also the last man standing at wide receiver. With both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis out of the lineup, BTJ is set up to see a 25%+ target share against a beat-up Texans secondary. Per Rich Hribar's worksheet, Thomas Jr. has a 2.77 yards per route run in 160 routes with both Kirk and Davis off the field. He finished with 82 yards last time out in a tough matchup against the Lions, and he caught six of his nine targets in his first meeting with the Texans this season, good for 86 yards.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Nico Collins (HOU) Longest Reception - Over 26.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)

Let's play the hits! Nico Collins has at least one 26-yard reception in every game this season. His snap rate continues to trend up. He ran a round on 55% of CJ Stroud's dropbacks in his first game back in Week 11, and it jumped up to 80% last week against the Titans. I think we'll see that climb again this week. Since Week 7, the Jaguars have allowed the third-highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league (19.69%). The Jaguars had no answer for Collins in the first meeting back in Week 4, though Tank Dell was out for that meeting. Collins caught 12 of his 15 targets for 151 yards and a score.

Risk: 1.2 units to win 1 unit

I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.