Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 1 was one of the worst displays of football I have ever seen but it didn’t matter for our props as I went 11-3 on straight bets for +7.53 units including alts!
A few of the plays were some of the easiest winners I have ever had. Mecole Hardman was lined all week like he would be WR4 but in fact was the WR6. I mentioned in our write-up I didn’t think he would run a single route but would play on special teams. That’s exactly what happened, cashing out U9.5 receiving yards bet.
Monotone (Stu) alerted me that they dropped Mike Williams reception total on Monday morning, a play that turned out to be an incredible look. We bet Mike Williams under 2.5 receptions, fully knowing they would work him back slowly returning from an ACL, just like we saw from Breece Hall last season. Williams didn’t see a single target on 9 total snaps.
DeAndre Hopkins under 51.5 receiving yards was another great one. He caught just one pass on 17 snaps, as there was real doubt whether he would even play or not. If sportsbooks keep lining guys who aren’t going to play much at 75% of their normal line, this season is going to be absolutely incredible.
Two of our three losses came by the hook, with Zeke under 39.5 rushing yards and Gardner Minshew under 32.5 attempts, both losing by the hook. I’m definitely not complaining though after we ran pure on David Montgomery rushing for 46 yards in overtime, hitting both his over 52.5 and alt over 87.5 we hit at +500.
All-in-all it was a fantastic week of props for me while Ryan Noonan and Hunter Huss both popped a couple of units, and our pick’em plays won 66% of plays in Jake Lotenberg’s first week at the helm of our product there.
Enough gloating about Week 1; let’s get into Week 2 props.
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Week 2 NFL Player Props
Jared Goff over 269.5 passing yards (-113 at DK)
Goff shredded Todd Bowles' defense last year twice passing for 287 and 353 yards. They play 2 high and a ton of zone. Goff has completed 72.3% of passes last The Bucs will also be without Antione Winfield, one of their few defensive difference makers. We saw a run-heavy approach from the Lions last week agains tthe depleted Rams defensive line but should see the Lions pass a bit more here. With Jameson Williams playing a full complement of snaps and being used in space, the Lions are at full strength in the passing game with Amon Ra, Sam Laporta, Jameson, and Gibbs out of the backfield who they used more as a pass-catcher. The flipside to this is the Bucs passing offense looked great last week as well and should provide significant pushback here against a Lions secondary that still doesn't look good at this point. With massive scoring upside in this game and a good matchup I like Goff to go over and pass for 300 here. Risk 1.13 to win 1
Risk 0.25 to win 0.485 on 300+ passing yards (+194 FD, +190)
Lamar Jackson Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-120 DK)
Joint with Ryan Noonan also -114, FD, -119 on Builder, -120 on DK, -125 on MGM, -129 CZR. There's a pretty clear trend here with Lamar Jackson, and it's about as straightforward as it gets. When the Ravens are big favorites or comfortably in control of the game in the second half, Lamar doesn't top 30 passing attempts. I went back and looked at every game last season, and it's clear as day. 2023 notes:
-HOU Week 1, 22 attempts
-The next two games are tightly contested, over
-CLE Week 4 vs DTR, 19 attempts
-close games against PIT and TEN, barely over
-The next five games, they pummel everyone and win by at least a TD; most attempts in that five game span was 27
-The next 2 spots, 3-point game in the 4th vs LAC (32) and OT vs the Rams (43)
-Pummel the Jags and Dolphins, 24 and 21
The only spot where this didn't hold was Christmas night when they won in SF. The strength of this Raiders defense is their pass rush, and I have concerns about this Ravens line being able to protect Lamar all season, so a run-heavy approach is the best schematic way for the Ravens to control this game, and they should; they're 8-point home favorites.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1
Deebo Samuel over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 at DK)
Samuel is in an absolute smash spot here against the Vikings. The Vikings under Brian Flores play a ton of two-high safety looks (83.7%), play a lot of zone (81.6% in W1), bring a lot of zone blitzes, and play solid run defense. Per Rich Hribar "Samuel has been targeted on 28.2% of his routes against zone coverage compared to a 17.9% rate against man coverage. When Purdy has faced zone blitzes, Samuel has averaged a team-high 2.34 yards per route run." Against two high safety looks Deebo Samuel leads the 49ers in target share at 26.3%. They like to get the ball out quick against blitzes and Deebo does a great job at finding holes in zone coverage. Aiyuk is still shaking off some hold-in rust and CMC is likely to miss meaning we could see even more passing here from the 49ers.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Risk 0.25 units to win 0.5 units on over 70.5 receiving yards at DK
Risk 01 units to win 0.475 units on over 90.5 receiving yards at DK
Xavier Legette (CAR) under 23.5 receiving yards (-114 FD, DK)
Legette's final stats last week made it seem like he had a great week with 35 receiving yards and 4 receptions on 7 targets. Yet, four of those targets came in the fourth quarter with Diontae Johnson on the bench and the Panthers down 30+ points. Prior to the 4th quarter, Legette only ran a route on 57.7% of dropbacks. Now he enters a spot against a Chargers team that will look to drain the clock with their own running game and likely make this a low-volume affair. I don't anticipate them getting a lead as substantial as what we saw from the Saints either. Considering how poor the Panthers' offense looked last week and the underlying metrics for Legette, there are multiple outs for a bad day for him.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Malik Willis under 174.5 passing yards -115 DK
Joint play with Monotone and Noonan. Willis has started three games, never topping 100 passing yards. Combined he has completed 25-of-49 attempts(51%) for just 234 passing yards (78.0 yards a game) 0 TD 3 Int through the air. We’re talking about guys like Justin Fields consistently lined in the 150’s last year, Bo Nix is currently in the 160’s… you’re telling me the worst quarterback in the NFL by EPA per play (and my eyeballs) should be at a higher number? One of the more overlooked aspects of this is the fact that he was just traded to the Packers two weeks ago, so even if he has made some improvement it’s very unlikely he is familiar enough with the playbook to actually show that off. The Colts were thrashed on the ground for 215 total yards last week, mostly by Mixon. There is no way this team doesn’t live and die on Josh Jacobs and the ground game.
Available CZRS, MGM, B365 etc 1.15u to win 1u
KJ Osborn (NE) U26.5 receiving yards (-125 at DK)
Osborn ran just 14 routes last week on 29 dropbacks from Jacoby Brissett. He drew 6 targets, catching just 3 of them for 21 yards. He likely won't have anywhere that level of target per run rate in the future. He now draws the Seahawks who locked up Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, pressuring Nix on 43% of his dropbacks. Despite playing against an underwhelming Bengals defensive line, Brissett was pressured at the leagues highest rate (44%). The Seahawks could dial up an insane pressure rate here, leading to even less passing success for the Patriots here.
Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (+102 DraftKings)
Joint play with Ryan Noonan, released at +102 Caesars, also available at MGM and B365.
Garrett Wilson posted a 35% targets per route run on Monday night, catching 8 balls on 11 targets, and somehow Aaron Rodgers came out of that game saying, "I don't know how many targets he finished with, but we gotta up that number."
Aaron Rodgers is notorious for funneling targets to his top option, so I'm giving more credence to that statement than your typical quarterback/coach-speak talking point. As is, Wilson was Rodgers' first read on 42.9% of his attempts, tied for the second-highest rate in the league in Week 1.
I'd play this comfortably up to -120, and thought we'd see this at 6.5.
Alts available on CZR (7+ is +200)
Risk 1 to win 1.02
Mack Hollins over 17.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
Joint play with Monotone Football, available at 20.5 in most other spots which is fine as well.
Hollins ran 20 routes to Shakir's 21 and Coleman's 27 last week, and he is clearly in the mix as a starter. On a short week, I don't expect much change with the Bills. They now draw the Dolphins on Thursday Night. Last season, Josh Allen threw the ball 38 times against them when Joe Brady took over as OC, so even though they went run-heavy against the Cardinals, we could see a much more high-scoring game with more passing on both sides here. The Dolphins' defense also ranked just 22nd in dropback success rate and 24th in dropback EPA last week against a Jaguars passing attack we don't think is all that good.
We would play it to 23.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
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