Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Oct 09, 2024

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Im

Week 5 was my best week of player props since I started publicly releasing plays. I went 10-1 for +8.51 units. It truly doesn’t get much better than that. We had some plays break our way, but some of those breaks were factored into my handicap.

Gardner Minshew’s under hit despite a long touchdown in the first quarter because he was benched. I mentioned in my write-up that he was at an elevated risk of being benched here because he was benched in Week 3, didn’t play well, but they won in Week 4 and would be without Davante Adams in Week 5 again, matching up against a surprisingly tough Broncos defense.

Mack Hollins and Mike Williams both cashed for us under 2.5 receptions with two a pop. They were both a bit sweaty as Mack Hollins saw five targets in the first half but saw just one in the second half and didn’t catch it. Williams only had three targets on 54 attempts from Aaron Rodgers, a testament to my analysis of his man/zone target rate splits being correct.

Tyler Johnson under 10.5 receiving yards scared some people, but he only ran seven routes and saw zero targets. Even if he saw a target and caught a ball, his ADOT is so low he would still go under 2.5. If every Week could be like Week 5, I would be retiring early. It's important to note that they won't always be this awesome. At the end of the day, all I care about is profiting alongside subscribers!

Here is the full list of my plays from Week 5:

Zack Moss U45.5 rushing yards
Gardner Minshew U193.5 passing yards
Mike Williams U2.5 receptions
Zach Ertz U28.5 receiving yards
Mack Hollins U2.5 receptions
JSN U48.5 receiving yards
Amari Cooper O52.5 receiving yards
Daniel Jones U187.5 passing yards
Trey Sermon U13.5 attempts
Tyler Johnson U10.5 receiving yards
Alvin Kamara under 67.5 rushing yards

As you may notice, I love playing unders and am now hitting them at a 65% clip this season.

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