Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Oct 12, 2024

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Im

Week 5 was my best week of player props since I started publicly releasing plays. I went 10-1 for +8.51 units. It truly doesn’t get much better than that. We had some plays break our way, but some of those breaks were factored into my handicap.

Gardner Minshew’s under hit despite a long touchdown in the first quarter because he was benched. I mentioned in my write-up that he was at an elevated risk of being benched here because he was benched in Week 3, didn’t play well, but they won in Week 4 and would be without Davante Adams in Week 5 again, matching up against a surprisingly tough Broncos defense.

Mack Hollins and Mike Williams both cashed for us under 2.5 receptions with two a pop. They were both a bit sweaty as Mack Hollins saw five targets in the first half but saw just one in the second half and didn’t catch it. Williams only had three targets on 54 attempts from Aaron Rodgers, a testament to my analysis of his man/zone target rate splits being correct.

Tyler Johnson under 10.5 receiving yards scared some people, but he only ran seven routes and saw zero targets. Even if he saw a target and caught a ball, his ADOT is so low he would still go under 2.5. If every Week could be like Week 5, I would be retiring early. It's important to note that they won't always be this awesome. At the end of the day, all I care about is profiting alongside subscribers!

Here is the full list of my plays from Week 5:

Zack Moss U45.5 rushing yards
Gardner Minshew U193.5 passing yards
Mike Williams U2.5 receptions
Zach Ertz U28.5 receiving yards
Mack Hollins U2.5 receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba U48.5 receiving yards
Amari Cooper O52.5 receiving yards
Daniel Jones U187.5 passing yards
Trey Sermon U13.5 attempts
Tyler Johnson U10.5 receiving yards
Alvin Kamara under 67.5 rushing yards

As you may notice, I love playing unders and am now hitting them at a 65% clip this season.

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Week 6 NFL Player Props

Josh Palmer under 32.5 receiving yards (-119 CZRS, -120 DK, -115 Builder, -113 31.5 FD)

Joint play with Monotone/Stu (@Monotonefootbal on Twitter)

I expect minimal passing success and passing volume from the Chargers here given how well the Broncos defense has played and Harbaugh's run-first mentality. The Chargers are also getting back two of their starting offensive lineman and will likely try and force the issue on the ground.

Palmer plays the majority of his snaps on the outside meaning he will draw one of Patrick Surtain or Riley Moss. Both players have played incredibly well this season with Moss ranking 7th in PFF's cornerback grades. Only 6 WRs have cleared 30 yards in 5 weeks and four of them were predominantly slot wide receivers.

Beyond a tough matchup, Palmer's average depth of target this year is just 8.8, very similar to McConkey's (8.7) while QJ's is all the way to 17.5. According to Fantasy Points Data, in the 3 games Palmer has played he has just a 14.9% first-read target share which ranks 4th on the Chargers. This is behind QJ (31.9%), McConkey (25.5%) and Hayden Hurst (15%).

The coaching staff/Herbert don't really seem to be too interested in designing plays to Palmer and even if they do, the targets are relatively close to the line of scrimmage.

Risk 1.19 units to win 1 unit

Drake Maye under 18.5 completions (-110 DraftKings)

The Texans are allowing the lowest completion rate in the league at 51.7% and are allowing just 16.2 completions per game. This would be concerning for any QB (they just held Josh Allen to 9 completions last week in negative game script) but we now have rookie Drake Maye making his first start playing behind a pathetic OL with no talent at WR.

Maye is known for aggressively pushing the ball downfield into lower-completion rate situations. He led this QB draft class in air yards per attempt and wasn't all that accurate when he did (49.4% on-target rate, H/T Rich Hribar).

The Texans are 9th in pressure rate and have shown a tendency to blitz QBs behind fragile OLs (see Caleb Williams in Week 2 who they blitzed at the league's highest rate). This is very bad news for the Patriots who allowed Brissett to be pressured at the highest rate of the league (46.5%).

I would expect the Patriots to try and emphasize the running game early and often here. Even with the Patriots facing immense negative game script multiple times this season, Brissett didn't attempt more than 34 passes in a single game. He averaged 15.8 completions per game and only cleared 18.5 in one game (finished with 19).

This was originally released at -102 on FD in the subscriber discord.

Risk 1.02 units to win 1 unit