O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 8

Oct 23, 2024

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 8 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	GB	JAX	32	27
7	DEN	CAR	30	23
2	BUF	SEA	25	23
3	KC	LVR	24	21
11	ATL	TB	31	20
12	PHI	CIN	28	16
6	IND	HOU	22	16
1	DET	TEN	17	16
15	MIA	ARI	26	11
4	BAL	CLE	15	11
9	TB	ATL	19	10
19	HOU	IND	27	8
16	SF	DAL	23	7
8	MIN	LAR	14	6
26	CLE	BAL	29	3
17	DAL	SF	20	3
18	NYJ	NE	13	-5
10	CAR	DEN	2	-8
13	LAC	NO	5	-8
25	LVR	KC	16	-9
30	PIT	NYG	21	-9
22	SEA	BUF	12	-10
14	WAS	CHI	3	-11
29	NO	LAC	18	-11
20	CHI	WAS	8	-12
24	LAR	MIN	11	-13
23	CIN	PHI	6	-17
28	NYG	PIT	10	-18
27	JAX	GB	7	-20
21	ARI	MIA	1	-20
31	TEN	DET	9	-22
32	NE	NYJ	4	-28

Broncos vs. Panthers

Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos may be an honest-to-goodness good NFL team. After controlling the Saints via the ground game in Week 7, they’ll have a chance to feature Bo Nix in what profiles as an easy matchup against a soft Carolina Panthers defense. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly where the best place to attack them is because they’re talent-deficient pretty much everywhere you look.

The Panthers have pressured the opposing quarterback at a league-low 22.9%, and when they’re unable to infiltrate the pocket, the secondary isn’t upholding their end of the bargain. On pass attempts that are deemed “no pressure” on the year, they are allowing a 78.2% completion rate (30th), 8.8 yards per attempt (32nd), and a 125.2 QB rating (32nd), accounting for 208.4 yards per game (27th). This presents quite the issue, as the Broncos lead the league with a 4.1% adjusted sack rate, and allowed a lowly 18.2% pressure rate in Week 7, right tackle Mike McGlinchey’s first appearance since a Week 2 MCL sprain.

McGlinchey has never been known as an otherworldly pass-blocker, but he should be more than able to hold his own against this pass rush. Jadeveon Clowney is the only EDGE on this team that ranks in the top 50 in QB pressures (14, 44th) is still questionable as he recovers from a shoulder injury, and Charles Harris is the only option in the rotation with more than one sack on the year (2).

Nix is a slam dunk as a QB2 option, while Courtland Sutton should have a nice bounce-back WR3 performance after his goose egg in Week 7.

Bills @ Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have been a treat to watch from a fantasy perspective, sitting at the third-highest pace (24.8 seconds/snap) and passing the ball at a league-high 66.5% clip. Though their defense has put the clamps on two different opponents (Dolphins - 3 points, Falcons - 14), they have also allowed three teams to top 28 points, in three straight games from Weeks 4-6. The Lions, Giants, and 49ers averaged 430.6 yards in those games, and the fact that Daniel Jones was one of those beneficiaries is probably one of the reasons the Seahawks rank 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the QB position.

Including Jones’ 11-38 rushing line against Seattle, they have allowed the third-highest yard-per-attempt mark to opposing quarterbacks (6.4), including a league-leading 13.5 on scrambles. This obviously benefits Josh Allen’s legs, but it could also create some fantasy goodness for pass-catchers, as Allen currently leads the league in yardage on out-of-pocket throws (275). Shiny new toy Amari Cooper can cash in on those situations as early as this week, and has plenty to build upon after notching a 4-66-1 stat line while playing only 34.5% of the snaps in his introductory game.

Beyond Cooper, Dalton Kincaid should continue to be viewed as a low-end TE1 with upside for more, while Khalil Shakir is a Week 8 target in deeper formats.

Falcons @ Buccaneers

Through the first four weeks of the season, it seemed like we had a pretty darn good pass defense on our hands in Tampa Bay. They had allowed a moderate 221.5 yards per game (19th) and -0.03 EPA/dropback (15th) while holding Jalen Hurts (158) and Jayden Daniels (184) below 200. The wheels have since fallen off, allowing the second-most yards per game (344.3) and 10th-most EPA/dropback (0.10) over these last three weeks. Those numbers could very well have looked worse had they not faced Spencer Rattler in his first career game, but they still have managed to allow 9.4 yards per attempt when targeting the wide receiver position since Week 5.

This is all to say that we need to be playing Drake London and Darnell Mooney everywhere we can. Kirk Cousins may indeed still be hobbled from his Achilles injury last season, but he’s still getting plenty of space in the pocket behind a Falcons O-line that has allowed the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the league.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Lions vs. Titans

We should be targeting this disheveled Titans offense any time we can, regardless of the fact that Aidan Hutchinson won’t be lining up across from their offensive line, as we may have hoped when looking at the schedule.

On the year, the Titans as a whole have the third-most giveaways (12), the second-lowest yards per game (259.2), and the highest rate of turnover-worthy throws (6.6%). It really doesn’t matter whether Will Levis or Mason Rudolph gets the nod for Week 8; they’ll still be playing behind an offensive line that is not getting the “Bill Callahan boost” that other teams have been enjoying for the last, oh, four decades.

Third-year right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere was thrust back into action last week and allowed eight pressures on his 43 pass-blocking snaps, and while rookie left tackle JC Latham will have better days ahead of him, the Bills notched two sacks on him, on the other side of the line. Detroit has a good chance to be the No. 1 D/ST on the week.

Packers @ Jaguars

The Packers currently have the second-highest implied team total on the week (27), and as 4.5-point favorites on Sunday, the most likely game script has the Jaguars playing from behind. While that’s good news for Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram, it’s also likely good news for a Green Bay defense that leads the league with 17 takeaways (nine INTs, eight fumbles).

Though Walker Little played well in Cam Robinson’s steed last week, this matchup strengthens if the latter is forced to miss Week 8.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
7	DEN	CAR	32	25
3	KC	LVR	28	25
2	BUF	SEA	24	22
5	GB	JAX	25	20
13	LAC	NO	30	17
8	MIN	LAR	23	15
18	NYJ	NE	31	13
16	SF	DAL	26	10
1	DET	TEN	11	10
21	ARI	MIA	29	8
12	PHI	CIN	19	7
22	SEA	BUF	27	5
4	BAL	CLE	8	4
17	DAL	SF	21	4
14	WAS	CHI	17	3
19	HOU	IND	22	3
10	CAR	DEN	10	0
20	CHI	WAS	20	0
6	IND	HOU	5	-1
15	MIA	ARI	12	-3
11	ATL	TB	6	-5
9	TB	ATL	3	-6
27	JAX	GB	18	-9
26	CLE	BAL	13	-13
30	PIT	NYG	16	-14
28	NYG	PIT	14	-14
23	CIN	PHI	7	-16
32	NE	NYJ	15	-17
29	NO	LAC	9	-20
24	LAR	MIN	4	-20
25	LVR	KC	1	-24
31	TEN	DET	2	-29

Chiefs @ Raiders

Though the passing offense (and thus, Patrick Mahomes) has looked a little disjointed throughout the 2024 season, the Chiefs have been able to lean on their run game despite injuries hitting both RB and WR rooms. This comes on the back of an offensive line that is tied for second in adjusted line yards (5.01), with the interior of Joe Thuney-Creed Humphrey-Trey Smith comprising one of —if not the— best groupings in all of football.

This bodes well against a Raiders run defense that allows 4.8 yards per attempt (26th) and 60.1 between-the-tackle yards per game, the most in the league. Kareem Hunt isn’t the most awe-inspiring fantasy option in the year 2024, but the team is making the most of what they’ve got, and that makes him a fringe RB1/2 in a fantastic matchup.

Chargers vs. Saints

Let’s ride this J.K. Dobbins train for as long as it stays on the rails. The oft-injured vet has three separate 17+ fantasy point performances, with two of them coming against exploitable defensive lines: the Carolina Panthers and the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders. He gets another one of those soft matchups here against a Saints team that has allowed a league-high 5.5 yards per attempt and has notched 5.37 adjusted line yards, the second-worst mark.

With Rashawn Slater and fully healthy rookie Joe Alt setting the edges, expect Dobbins to turn the corner for a long one in Week 8.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: