Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the Valspar Championship

Mar 19, 2025

Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Players Championship Recap:

Last week was another excellent week for the top plays. We logged three Top 15 finishes and a made-cut T54 from our 5100 golfers. Fleet and Sepp disappointed a bit as they should’ve been in contention down the stretch, but a lousy round killed their chances of winning. All in all, it was a great week.

Valspar Championship Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10, you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

SG: T2G / BS - Last 20 rounds (recent form)
Good Drive % - Last 50 rounds (Gain OTT/Approach difficult & very difficult)
SG: Ball-Striking - Last 50 rounds (Gain OTT/Approach difficult & very difficult)
SG: Approach - Last 50 rounds (Gain Approach difficult & very difficult)
GIR % - Last 18 Months (Gain approach and OTT difficult and very diff)

Valspar Championship DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Tommy Fleetwood, $10.3K, +11/1 FD/DK, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

5th in SG: T2G (L20 Rounds)
7th in Good Drive % (L18 Months Gain APP/OTT Difficult/Very Difficult)
10th in Bogey AVD % (L50 Rounds Par 3&4 Scoring Average/Difficult)

Innisbrook plays very similarly to TPC Sawgrass, and Fleetwood was a great fit last week and is again this week. This course demands elite ball striking and golfers who are capable of not compounding mistakes. Fleetwood has been one of the best ball strikers on tour this season, incredibly accurate OTT, and has the short game to save bogeys or worse when he finds himself out of position.

Keith Mitchell, $7.8K, +60/1 MGM, 4th in model

Key Stats:

1st in SG: OTT (L50 Rounds Gain OTT Difficult/Very Difficult)
5th in SG: BS (L18 Months Gain OTT/APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
9th in GIR% (L50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
6th in Par 5 BoB % (L18 Months Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)

Cashmere Keith has been one of the better ball strikers on tour for a while; he hasn’t won since 2019 because of his poor putting game. Lucky for Keith, the greens at Innisbrook play easier than average. Last year at the Valspar, Keith was leading the field going into Sunday and was the betting favorite live; a Sunday 77 had him tumble down the leaderboard to T17. Keith’s elite ball striking should stand out this week and should be able to propel him to another good finish.

Jacob Bridgeman $7.4K, +55/1 FD/Caesars, 18th in model

Key Stats:

27th in SG: T2G (L20 Rounds)
2nd in SG: P (L75 Rounds)
11th in GIR % (L2 Years Missed Fairway Penalty High)
18th in SG: APP (L18 Months Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)

Bridgeman was a rookie on tour last season, and he showcased that he had one of the best putters in the game, but he struggled big time striking the ball, which led to very inconsistent finishes. This season, Bridgeman has gained OTT in 6/8 tournaments and on APP in the last four tournaments. Bridgeman's long-term approach and GIR % numbers on difficult courses are shockingly good. While the putting here isn't typically a separator, his putting game, combined with his improved ball striking, should bode well at Innisbrook.

Rico Hoey $7.0K, +90/1 FD/Caesars, 6th in model

Key Stats:

1st in SG: OTT (L50 Rounds Less Than Drive Average/Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)
2nd in SG: BS (L18 Months Gain APP/OTT Difficult/Very Difficult)
6th in GIR % (L50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
10th in SG: T2G (L75 Rounds GIR Accuracy Difficult)

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Keith Mitchell

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Players Championship: 4-2-1, +$610

Overall: 6-6, $548

58.18% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking TO WIN $100.

Make sure to join Discord to get the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.