Fantasy Football WR Underdog Draft Rankings
Last update .
Sep 05 .
06:50 PM EDT
| # | Player | TM | BYE | FF Pts | ADP12 | ADP10 | ↑↓ | GC | DIF | Rec | RecYdsReceiving | RecTD | Rec1D | RuAtt | RuYdsRushing | RuTD | Ru1D | Fum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb
Draft Note
CeeDee Lamb finished as the fantasy WR1 last year though he was second (to Tyreek Hill) in per-game scoring. He was the WR6 with the eighth-highest per-game average in 2022. Lamb is entering his age-25 season and should have another huge year as his environment (role, quarterback, play-caller) are all unchanged. The only concern is his contract situation but the Cowboys should be able to sort that out by training camp.
| DAL | 7 | 297 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1 | 0 | 119 | 1563 | 10.9 | 76.4 | 14 | 115 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 1 | |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill
Draft Note
Last season, Tyreek Hill finished as the fantasy WR2, though he had the highest per-game average (19.9 fantasy points per game) at his position. He was the fantasy WR2 in 2022 as well, and had the third-highest per-game average. He’s entering his age-30 season, which is his ninth-season in the league. According to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study, receivers see a slight decline in production in their ninth season before a much bigger drop in their 10th year. I’m not worried about Hill’s age at all, other than the tendency for older players to come down with nagging injuries more frequently than their younger counterparts. He’s a rock-sold WR1.
| MIA | 6 | 284 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 1603 | 11.5 | 75.2 | 3 | 11 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown
Draft Note
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as the fantasy WR3 with the fourth-highest per-game average at his position. He was the fantasy WR8 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game production. As he enters his fourth season his stock is as high as ever. His environment (i.e. quarterback, role, play-caller) are all unchanged, so I’m expecting another monster year from the “Sun God.”
| DET | 5 | 249 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 4 | 1 | 107 | 1384 | 9.4 | 67.9 | 4 | 23 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1 | |
| 4 | Justin Jefferson
Draft Note
Justin Jefferson missed several games with a bad hamstring injury, so he finished as the WR38, but had the fifth-best per-game average. When his injury game (71% snaps) and his first game back (18% snaps) are removed, he averaged 20.0 fantasy points in eight full games, and the last four of those games–7-84, 6-141-1, 5-59, and 12-192-1–were without Kirk Cousins. That’s important since Cousins is now in Atlanta and Jefferson will be catching passes from Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy. The vast majority of those Week 15 to Week 18 targets were from the capable Nick Mullens (9.1 yards per attempt, 5.2% touchdown rate), so it makes sense that Jefferson’s numbers didn’t dip much when Cousins was out of the picture. He averaged 8.3-136-0.75 on 11.8 targets per game in four games with Cousins and 7.5-119-0.50 on 11.0 targets in four games without Cousins. Either way, he was posting overall WR1-WR3 type numbers with or without Cousins. Jefferson was the overall WR1 in 2022, so there’s upside with him if he’s going off the board WR3 or WR4. The issue is that unlike the other receivers going in the top six, he’s undergoing a quarterback change. The Vikings do have two decent options in Darnold and McCarthy, so if one isn’t getting it done, the other might. There’s a bit of risk here, but Jefferson should have a high-end WR1 season regardless of Cousins’ departure.
| MIN | 6 | 223 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 5 | 1 | 95 | 1410 | 6.0 | 65.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | A.J. Brown
Draft Note
A.J. Brown finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR5 with the eighth-highest per-game average. He was the WR4 the year before and had the seventh-highest per-game average, so he has a recent history of midrange to high-end WR1 production. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator. Brown should once again post solid WR1 numbers.
| PHI | 5 | 214 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 6 | 1 | 91 | 1294 | 6.8 | 60.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 6 | Ja'Marr Chase
Draft Note
Ja’Marr Chase missed several games in 2022, but finished with the fifth-highest per-game average. Last season, he was the fantasy WR10 and had the 11th-highest per-game average. Joe Burrow missed seven games, and Chase averaged 15.4 fantasy points with Burrow versus just 9.8 fantasy points without him. Over the last three seasons, Chase has averaged 16.1 fantasy points with Burrow at quarterback, which is great, but it’s not top-three WR great. His WR3 ADP is a little aggressive given his history as a producer, though there are worse ideas than betting on a 24-year-old receiver with 3,700+ yards and 29 touchdowns in three seasons.
| CIN | 12 | 212 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 3 | -3 | 91 | 1201 | 7.7 | 58.6 | 2 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | |
| 7 | Garrett Wilson
Draft Note
After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first pass attempt of the season, it was clear that Garrett Wilson would be in for a tough season. He finished as the fantasy WR30 after a WR22 finish as a rookie in 2022. Since 2010, among receivers in their first two seasons, Wilson ranked seventh in receptions and 14th in receiving yards. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Rodgers’ receivers averaged 1.41 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target, which is 45% higher than the 0.97 fantasy points per target offered by the Jets’ quarterbacks last season. Simply applying 1.41 fantasy points per target to Wilson’s 168 targets last season would yield roughly 237 fantasy points, or about what A.J. Brown scored as last year’s fantasy WR5. Matt Harmon’s charting of WIlson’s second season at Reception Perception supports the prospect of a breakout third year. Harmon called Wilson “the CeeDee Lamb of last summer” and says the “hype is real.” I don’t think Wilson’s WR8 ADP is much of a reach at all.
| NYJ | 12 | 200 | 1.11 | 2.01 | 7 | 0 | 89 | 1156 | 6.8 | 56.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8 | Marvin Harrison Jr.
Draft Note
With Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore gone, the Cardinals have the fifth-most vacated targets (217) and Harrison will soak up most of them. He's landing in a fantastic situation from an opportunity and quarterback standpoint and will immediately be in the fantasy WR2 mix with upside from there. Matt Harmon compared Harrison’s profile to Ja’Marr Chase coming out of college and added that Harrison “easily was one of the best prospects” he has charted for Reception Perception.
| ARI | 11 | 199 | 2.03 | 2.05 | 9 | 1 | 88 | 1150 | 6.8 | 56.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 9 | Brandon Aiyuk
Draft Note
Brandon Aiyuk was highly-efficient again in 2023, turning the 29th-most targets into the 12th-most fantasy points. He was the fantasy WR15 in 2022, so he has a recent history of consistent low-end WR1/high-end WR2 type numbers. Aiyuk got the very rare “all green” chart from Matt Harmon at Reception Perception meaning that he’s one of the “truly elite” receivers (Harmon’s words) in the league. Even if his usage isn’t as high as we’d like, he enjoys good quarterback play and highly-efficient play-calling. Now that he’s signed his extension, it’s all systems go for this young star.
| SF | 9 | 195 | 3.09 | 4.03 | 18 | 9 | 69 | 1153 | 7.7 | 51.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 10 | Mike Evans
Draft Note
Mike Evans is coming off a 79-1255-13 season, which was good enough for a fantasy WR4 finish. It was his best season since 2018 (86-1524-8), so clearly he and Baker Mayfield had a nice rapport in Mayfield's first season. Now entering his 11th season, his production should be falling off, but given his outstanding 2023 season, we can continue to expect WR1/WR2 numbers from Evans.
| TB | 11 | 192 | 3.02 | 3.06 | 13 | 3 | 60 | 952 | 11.3 | 43.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
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What is a WR in Fantasy Football?
In the NFL a wide receiver is a player who is generally split out wide prior to the snap. Their primary task is catching the football whereas tight ends are sometimes asked to block on passing downs. This is not the responsibility of the receivers. There are three different types of receivers – the X receiver, the Z, and the slot.
The X receiver is what is generally known as the No. 1 or the alpha. They’re typically bigger and stronger because they line up directly on the line of scrimmage which invites more contact at the snap. The slot receiver is typically lined up behind the line of scrimmage and is generally aligned close to the offensive line. This enables the slot receiver more field to work with as opposed to the X receiver who has a sideline next to them. By lining up behind the line of scrimmage, it limits how much press coverage they’re typically forced to deal with. They generally have a lower average depth of target.
The Z receiver or flanker also generally lines up behind the line of scrimmage, affording them with more of a cushion between them and their defender at the snap.
Who is the best fantasy wide receiver?
Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are the two favorites to finish as the No. 1 receiver in 2022 based on consensus rankings. Kupp receives a slight boost in any PPR formats after racking up 145 receptions last season. However, Kupp’s old offensive coordinator is the new head coach in Minnesota, which could lead to a career year for Jefferson. With expected regression from Kupp and Jefferson getting to play what is being described as a more up-tempo, pass-centric offense, it’s very possible Jefferson finishes the season as the best receiver in fantasy football.
Drafting a WR in Fantasy Football
Fantasy managers don’t need to be too concerned with the scoring format inside the top 20 of receiver rankings. These players are generally viewed as the best players and there’s generally more consensus on these receivers. Outside of the top 20, fantasy managers should be paying attention to what kind of format their league is operating under.
If you are playing in any kind of PPR-scoring league, slot receivers who may not rack up as much yardage will have more value. This includes players like Hunter Renfrow, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. In standard scoring leagues where there are no bonuses for receptions, players such as Gabriel Davis and Allen Lazard will receive a boost since they have high touchdown potential being connected to explosive offenses and a defined red zone role.
There are several criteria fantasy managers should look for when drafting a receiver. The first is their volume. Fantasy managers should want to envision a potential pathway to 115+ targets for WR2 viability. The next is what kind of offense they play on. If it’s a run-based offense like the Eagles or Seahawks, the volume could become a concern. Targeting receivers on pass-heavy systems with strong quarterback play is always a good bet.
How many Fantasy Football Wide Receivers should I have?
The answer to this question depends on your roster format. Some leagues only require two starting receivers and a flex. Others require three receivers and a flex. In any PPR-scoring league, with the league continuing to focus more and more on the pass and with the injury concerns at running back, it makes sense for fantasy managers to target receivers with their flex positions.
Depending on how large your bench is, fantasy managers should be planning on filling up their reserves with mostly running backs and wide receivers. It makes sense to have a bench tight end or quarterback if your bench is large enough, but for the most part, your bench should be focused on running backs and receivers, since they make up the majority of our starting roster. Each fantasy manager should have at least five receivers on your team based on starting requirements and bench sizes and upwards of eight on the higher end.
How do different scoring formats affect a wide receiver in fantasy football?
The scoring format can impact not only how fantasy managers rank certain receivers, but also how valuable a given position is. In regard to receivers, in standard scoring leagues, receivers take a sizable hit to their value. This is because they’re no longer being awarded for each reception, which has been used to create a more even playing field between receivers and running backs. In full-PPR leagues, the value shifts to the receivers and it’s the running back position that takes a hit in value because there are so few true three-down backs anymore. The scoring format helps inform each player which players are more beneficial.
Focusing on just the receiver position, slot receivers tend to have more value in PPR leagues. This is because although they may not generally finish with as much yardage, the number of receptions they have can help in making up the difference. In years past, fantasy managers have seen players like Keenan Allen and JuJu Smith-Schuster be incredibly valuable PPR assets because they caught so many passes. Deep threat receivers and those who generally have a high average depth of target lose value in PPR leagues because they often finish with lower reception totals. This may include guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and DeSean Jackson.
What should I look for in Drafting Wide Receivers?
Some of the most important things to look at when drafting receivers are their target share, the average depth of their targets, and their red zone utilization. The more targets, the better. The average depth of target is important because it can be a way to predict upside and consistency. If a player has an average depth of target that’s lower than most, their upside is likely to be limited. If it’s too high, their consistency might wane because those targets have a lower rate of success. Red zone utilization is also very important because it also provides important information in determining what kind of upside a particular player has. Players like Adam Thielen and Mike Evans are regularly used by their teams in the red zone and this increases their value.
Fantasy managers should also pay attention to the kind of offense they’re playing. Look at Stefon Diggs when he was in Minnesota. That offense was primarily based around the running game and Dalvin Cook. It was a slower-paced offense and even though Diggs was very efficient, he never truly broke out. In just year one in Buffalo with a very pass-heavy system and an up-tempo offense, he became a top-five fantasy receiver. Players like AJ Brown and DK Metcalf are negatively impacted by their team’s offensive style, while Mike Williams and CeeDee Lamb are boosted by theirs.
M/U = 4for4 matchup ranking (Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed). 1 = Worst Matchup, 32 = Best Matchup
