DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 5

Oct 05, 2017

Here is my breakdown on a handful of running backs, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge for the Week 5 slate of games.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

With a handful of studs getting it going last week and some injuries opening up some potential value, I think we will see a few more high priced running backs being chalk this week. Ezekiel Elliott and LeVeon Bell look like they will carry the highest ownership among all running backs this weekend.

LeVeon Bell (9500/9500) looked like the Le'Veon of old last week, showing burst and bouncing to the outside. His monster workload of 37 touches is not a realistic expectation every week, but we can safely project him for 25 touches. He is a home favorite, has an implied team total of 26 points, and gets a very friendly matchup versus the Jaguars, who are ranked 30th inRB aFPA.
Todd Gurley (8000/7800) is in a similar position to Bell this week. His workload is exactly what we want (26.5 touches per game), he is a slight home favorite, and he has a decent implied team total sitting at 24 points. Gurley has shown us he is game script-independent (5 or more targets in three of his last four games), and comes at a slight discount to Bell and Elliott this week.
Carlos Hyde (6900/7200) definitely carries a little more value on full-PPR sites, but he does still come with TD equity, as he has seen the fourth-most attempts inside the 20-yard line and has a healthy 7 attempts from within the 5-yard line (second-most). The Colts rank 24th in RB aFPA.
Leonard Fournette (7000/7600) aka 4nette has shown us what I call some grown-ass man runs:

Fournette has seen 8+ men in the box 51% of the time this season which is 3rd most in the league. He saw 58% in week 3 and 41% in week 4.

— Ryan Hodge ☕️ (@RyanHodge) October 2, 2017

Fournette has also shown us he can catch the ball out of the backfield (4 targets per game), which helps him become a little bit game script-independent as he heads into Pittsburgh as a road underdog.

Andre Ellington (4600/5400), like Hyde, carries a little more value on full PPR sites, as he has been a target monster over the past two weeks (24 targets). Arizona has thrown the ball 197 times this year, which is most in the league, while rushing just 86 times, which is in the bottom-third. Looks for Ellington’s pass-game volume to continue.

Studs

With LeVeon Bell, Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley all projecting to be chalk this week, it really only leaves us with two high-priced studs to exploit at potentially low ownership.