DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 8

Oct 26, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

The most popular tight ends this week are found in the middle pricing tier, but the expensive options at tight end may approach ownership levels close to the chalk plays. There are six teams on a bye and slates with fewer games tend to be higher variance because lineups will have more overlap. One way to combat this variance is to fight fire with fire by embracing variance and going with less popular plays at the most volatile positions, like tight end.

No tight ends have played a higher percentage of team snaps this year than Jason Witten ($5,400 FD/$4,400 DK) and he’s one of just nine tight ends that has been targeted on at least 10% of his snaps. That high usage against a Washington defense ranked 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends means Witten will be one of the most popular plays at his position this week. While Washington has been extremely vulnerable against tight ends, they’ve allowed just 3 touchdowns to the position and only seven teams throw at a lower rate inside the red zone than the Cowboys.
Hunter Henry ($5,500/$4,800) is priced as the TE4 on DraftKings, but the TE9 on FanDuel. His FanDuel discount should make him a popular play this week. Henry’s snaps have steadily increased all season and he’s played at least 75% of the team's snaps in each of the last three weeks, including over 80% in the last two games. In that three-game stretch, Henry is averaging just under 7 targets per game and will face a Patriots defense ranked 22nd against tight ends. The Chargers are 7-point road underdogs projected for less than 21 points this week.
Last week, Jordan Reed ($6,100/$4,700) had his best game of the season, turning 10 targets into 8 catches for 64 yards and 2 scores. That was just the first time all year, though, that Reed has seen more than 6 targets. This week, Washington faces a Cowboys defense ranked in the top half of the league in tight end aFPA. Washington is a slight underdog, but this is expected to be the highest-scoring game of the week.