DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 10

Nov 09, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

We have four defenses that project to be the highest owned on this slate. The Lions, Bears, and Rams project to be the chalk defenses on DraftKings, while the Steelers project to be the chalkiest on FanDuel. There won’t be any significant risk in fading any one of these defenses as defensive scoring has plenty of variance built in. I’d stick to one of these four defenses for cash games. Depending on your roster construction, any one of these four should fit into your lineups.

The Chicago Bears ($4,300/$3,000) are in a great spot at home against a Packers offense implied for 16.5 points, the third-lowest total on the main slate. There is a good chance Brett Hundley struggles (again) as they just lost OT Bryan Bulaga with a torn ACL and the Bears defensive line ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.
The Los Angeles Rams ($5,400/$3,600) have the pleasure of facing Tom Savage and the Texans. The Texans have an implied team total of just 17 points, and the Rams opened up as massive 11.5-point home favorites. Savage boasts a career 55% completion rate and 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt in eight career games. As 11.5-point favorites, the Rams should have plenty of opportunities to generate sacks against a Texans offensive line that has allowed the third-most sacks this season (28).
The Detroit Lions ($5,300/$3,800) square off against a Browns offense ranked 31st in defensive aFPA. The Lions’ strengths line up well with the Browns’ weaknesses as the Browns have the worst scoring and turnover rate in the league this year and the Lions boast the league’s second-highest turnover rate. They’re a safe play as 13-point home favorites.
It’s not ideal the Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,600/$3,700) are on the road and the Colts rank sixth in defensive aFPA. However, they should garner a high floor in this game as the Colts are implied for 16.5 points. On top of that, the Steelers have forced the fourth-most sacks this year (26), and the Colts’ offensive line ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate, allowing a league-high 35 sacks.