DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 10

Nov 09, 2017

Here is my breakdown of this week's DFS-relevant running backs, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge in the Week 10 slate of games.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

The chalk at running back looks pretty straightforward this week, with some obvious expensive running backs in great situations and a few cheaper ones who should see volume in good matchups. Jordan Howard might be the highest-owned running back on the slate and makes both our FanDuel and DraftKings optimal lineup.

LeVeon Bell (9800/9400) projects to carry a 30% ownership on FanDuel and 20% on DraftKings versus the Colts who rank 31st in RB aFPA. The Colts are allowing an average of 0.69 TDs per game and 109 rushing yards to opposing running backs on the year. Bell is averaging 29 touches per game and plays close to 90% of the team's offensive snaps, so he certainly checks off all the boxes in regards to volume and matchup.
Jordan Howard (6100/7200) has an excellent matchup at home versus the Packers who rank 24th in RB aFPA. Chicago is also a slight home favorite here with an implied team total of 21.5 points. The Bears are running the ball at the second-highest rate in the league (50%) and Howard is seeing the majority of those rush attempts (20.3 per game).
Carlos Hyde (6300/6700) is a slight home underdog versus the Giants this week, who rank 21st in RB aFPA. Full-PPR sites like DraftKings help mitigate Hyde's lack of TD equity with his pass-catching abilities, as he is averaging 9 targets per game since C.J. Beathard took over as the signal caller. Hyde is also playing 74% of the team's snaps.
Leonard Fournette (8400/8700) is in a #goodspot this Sunday. He is a 4-point home favorite with an implied team total sitting at 23 points. The Chargers rank 28th in RB aFPA and have been giving up an average of 1.0 TDs per game to opposing running backs. The Jaguars are also running the ball a league-high 52% of the time. Fournette checks every single box this week, and since he is cheaper than Bell on both sites, he might come in a little more highly owned in your cash games.