DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 10

Nov 09, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

The three highest-priced receivers of the week are among the receivers with the highest projected ownership, and the other chalk receiver is in arguably the best matchup of the week. This week lends itself to a stars and scrubs approach to roster construction, but Raybon’s Review highlights the fact that a balanced method to building lineups has generally been the highest-scoring strategy this year.

Antonio Brown ($9,300 FD/$9,500) is a top-two wide receiver value on both sites this week, coming in as the top-projected value on FanDuel. Brown leads the league in targets and is 1-of-5 receivers to account for at least 30% of his team’s red zone targets this season. He faces a Colts defense allowing the most yards to wide receivers, including the most pass plays of 15+ yards. While Pittsburgh’s offense has the best all-around matchup of the week, the Steelers have shifted to a run-heavy game plan, especially in the red zone where they have the fourth-highest rush rate in the league.
Julio Jones ($8,000/$8,000) is questionable with a lower leg injury but is still expected to be one of the most popular plays of the week if he is active. Atlanta faces a Dallas defense ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers. This game is expected to be the highest scoring of the week with an over/under currently at 50.5 points and a spread of just 2.5. While Atlanta hasn’t disclosed the exact nature of Jones’ injury, any lower leg injury has had a noticeably negative impact on wide receiver production.