DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 11

Nov 16, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

The Jaguars, Ravens, and Chiefs project to be our highest-owned defenses in Week 11—who are all on the road this week. With the abundance of reliable options at all different price ranges, there isn’t much risk in fading any single defense. In a position with so much variance, I never feel like a defense is a “must.” Usually, defense is the first position I plug into my rosters, but given the options this week, I may just use whichever one fits into my roster after the rest of my team is built.

The Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,600/$4,000) would be my defense of choice if you can afford them, but typically I won’t go out of my way to jam in an expensive defense. It’s a supreme matchup as the Browns rank 31st in defensive aFPA. The Jaguars have allowed the lowest scoring rate to opposing offenses as they’re scoring on just 22.1% of their drives and they also boast a top-five turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Browns are sporting the league’s lowest scoring rate (22.2%), and they’re turning the ball over on 20.4% of their drives—also a league-high.
The Baltimore Ravens ($4,700/$3,400) and Packers game is projected to be one of the lowest scoring games with a game total of 38 points. The Packers are implied for just 18 points, the third-lowest total on the main slate. Green Bay is averaging just 19 points per game with Brett Hundley as the signal-caller and he’s also dealing with a hamstring injury. They will also be without Aaron Jones and maybe Ty Montgomery. The Ravens should boast a high floor as they rank sixth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate and sport the league’s third-highest turnover rate (tied with the Rams).
The Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100/$3,300) are an interesting team because they’re not that strong defensively. They rank 22nd in adjusted sack rate, 17th in scoring rate allowed, 15th in turnover rate, and they’re allowing the second-highest yards per play only behind the Patriots. They’re average, but still giving up plenty of yards (fifth-most). Fortunately, the Giants are below average on offense. It’s not ideal the Chiefs are on the road, but the Giants are implied for 16.75 points, the second-lowest total on the main slate and the Chiefs are massive 10.5-point favorites.