DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 13

Nov 30, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Chalk

The chalk is concentrated near the top of pricing this week, but there is one very popular cheaper play. With a large gap in projected ownership in the middle tier, the popular roster construction technique in Week 13 figures to be a stars and scrubs approach.

Keenan Allen ($8,100 FD/$8,300 DK) is coming off of consecutive games with at least 34 PPR points and the Chargers are one of two teams projected to score at least 28 points this week. Allen is averaging nearly 10 targets per game and ranks ninth in the league in red zone targets, but the Browns rank seventh in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers. Only four teams have allowed fewer receptions to opposing receivers this season.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000/$7,300) has seen an increase in targets since Tom Savage took over as the starting quarterback, averaging nearly 13 targets per game with Savage, compared to just under 11 with Deshaun Watson. Hopkins ranks seventh in the league in red zone targets, but only four quarterbacks have a lower touchdown rate than Savage this season.
The Patriots have the highest implied point total of the week, making Brandin Cooks ($7,600/$7,700) one of the most popular wide receiver plays. Cooks is averaging over 8 targets per game since Week 5 and is coming off of back-to-back games with at least 20 PPR points. Only eight defenses have allowed more passing plays of 15+ yards than the Bills, but Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns to the position.
With Robert Woods out last week, Cooper Kupp ($6,300/$6,400) saw a season-high 11 targets, accounting for over a quarter of the Rams’ targets. Kupp is priced as a top-10 DK receiver, but he’s the WR17 on FanDuel, where is ownership is expected to approach 25%. Arizona ranks in the top third of the league in wide receiver aFPA, but Kupp will avoid Patrick Peterson in the slot.