DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 15

Dec 14, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

The Vikings project as the highest-owned defense on DraftKings, while the Saints project as the highest-owned defense on FanDuel. Both are in excellent spots as they are two of three defenses that are home and double-digit favorites. Per usual, there isn’t much risk in fading either of these defenses as this position is filled with variance. That said, if I am paying up for defense in cash games, it’s likely going to be one of these two defenses.

The Minnesota Vikings ($4,800/$3,500) project as a top-two value on both sites against a Bengals defense ranked 14th in defensive aFPA. The Vikings are 11-point home favorites against a Bengals offense implied for just 15.5 points, the third-lowest total on the slate. It’s a solid matchup as the Bengals have a bottom-six scoring rate among offenses.
The New Orleans Saints ($4,600/$3,900) come in $200 cheaper than the Vikings on FanDuel, but $400 more expensive on DraftKings, so it makes sense to target the Saints on FanDuel for just $4,600. They are huge 16-point home favorites against a Jets team that already ranks 25th in defensive aFPA and who will be plugging in Bryce Petty after they just lost Josh McCown to a broken hand.