DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 15

Dec 14, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Chalk

This week’s chalk at wide receiver is made up of the hottest wide receiver in football in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week and two players near the bottom of salary that have seen their roles drastically increased in recent weeks. This means that there won’t be many natural price pivots off of the most popular plays, but also allows owners to easily manipulate roster construction against lineups that are going with chalk plays at wide receiver.

Antonio Brown ($9,300/$9,100) is at least $1,100 more than any wide receiver on either site but still projects as the top value at his position on both sites. The Steelers host the Patriots in the only game of the week with a projected total over 50 and the spread is just three points. Brown has scored at least 24 PPR points in four straight games, with at least 12 targets in each of those games. Save last week, New England has been strong against the pass lately, as just eight teams have allowed a lower touchdown rate through the air over the last six weeks.
Marquise Goodwin ($6,600/$6,000) has seen at least 22% of San Francisco’s targets in each of Jimmy Garoppolo's starts, including a 37.5% target share in Week 14. Goodwin leads the 49ers in red zone targets and can score from deep, but San Francisco has the lowest passing touchdown rate in the red zone this year and only seven defenses have allowed fewer deep balls (traveled 15+ yards) than Tennessee.
Over the last three weeks, only 11 receivers have seen a higher target share than Dede Westbrook ($5,700/$5,100), who has 27 targets in that span. Westbrook will face a Houston secondary ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing wide receivers. While Westbrook has seen a 29% red zone target share in that span, Jacksonville has the second-lowest passing rate inside the 20 and the Jags could find themselves in a run-heavy game script as 11-point favorites.