DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 16

Dec 21, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Chalk

Two of the three most expensive wide receivers of the week are in the game with the highest over/under and project as the most popular plays. The other two receivers projected for at least 20% ownership are priced in the top 10 at their position as well. With ownership slanted toward expensive plays, most lineups figure to implement a stars and scrubs approach to roster construction.

Since Week 9, Julio Jones ($8,500 FD/$7,900 DK) has accounted for a third of the Falcons targets, the second-highest target share in that span. Atlanta travels to New Orleans in what is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week. While Jones has 17 red zone targets this year, he’s scored from inside the 20 just once all season. The Saints haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver in a game that both Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley have played in this year.
Michael Thomas ($8,200/$7,600) hasn’t seen fewer than 8 targets since Week 6 and only five players have been targeted more in the red zone over the past six weeks. The Falcons ranks second in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing running backs, but 16th against wide receivers, including a 10/117/1 game to Thomas just two weeks ago. Thomas has never scored fewer than 20 PPR points in three career games against Atlanta, but the Falcons do have one of the best red zone pass defenses in the league—Atlanta has allowed just 18.8% of red zone pass attempts to be converted into touchdowns, the eighth-lowest rate in the league.
Tyreek Hill ($7,400/$6,500) has at least 75 yards in three straight games, including three total touchdowns and Kansas City is projected to score over 26 points against the Dolphins. Miami ranks sixth in wide receiver aFPA, but only five teams have allowed more passing plays of at least 15 yards this season. Hill has only been targeted more than 8 times in a game twice this season, giving him a lower floor than other popular plays.
A.J. Green ($7,800/$$6,700) is priced outside the top-five receivers on DraftKings this week and faces a Lions defense ranked 24th in wide receiver aFPA. Green is one of three players with a target share over 30% this season, but he has struggled against top cornerbacks and will be shadowed by Darius Slay this week.