DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 17

Dec 28, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Week 17 is especially unique because some teams have everything to play for while others will be rolling out their backups. Research this week should start with Josh Moore's article on who's motivated. Look to roster players that are on teams needing to win, especially if there’s a chance those players will face backups on the opposite team.

Chalk

The chalk is made up of two expensive receivers and one player priced near the bottom of the middle tier. Just five receivers besides the chalk are expected to see double-digit ownership, so owners should be able to roster popular receivers and still build a unique lineup relatively easily.

No matter his quarterback or the matchup, DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100 FD/$8,400 DK) has been virtually matchup-proof this season, scoring fewer than 14 PPR points just once all year. Hopkins faces a Colts defense ranked 15th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to receivers, but has allowed the fifth-most yards to the position this year, including the most completions on deep balls (traveled 15+ yards in the air). Despite his high price tag, Hopkins projects as a top-two value on both sites.
After not allowing a 100-yard receiver in the first half of the season, Carolina has allowed five 100-yard receivers since Week 9—only four teams have allowed more than five 100-yard receivers over the entirety of the season. The Panthers' struggles against the pass down the stretch explains why they rank 30th in wide receiver aFPA and Julio Jones ($8,400/$8,200) has been targeted fewer than 8 times just once in the second half of the season. The concern all year with Julio has been his touchdown upside—he’s the only receiver with at least 15 red zone targets who doesn’t have more than a single red zone touchdown.
Only one defense has allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than the Texans this year and no team has allowed a higher touchdown rate through the air. T.Y. Hilton ($6,700/$5,900) relies on splash plays and his numbers have come in bunches this year, but Houston has allowed the second-most 100-yard games to wide receivers.