DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Divisional Round Edition

Jan 10, 2018

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

The New England Patriots ($5,100/$3,200) project as the top value on both sites this week as they take on a Titans team ranked 15th in defensive aFPA. They would be my preferred defense in cash games, especially on DraftKings for $3,200. They’re the largest favorites on the slate at 13.5 points and the Titans are tied for a slate-low 16.75 points.
The Atlanta Falcons ($4,400/$3,500) are a bottom-two value on DraftKings, but a top-three value on FanDuel, making them the better price sensitive play over there. While the Eagles rank first in defensive aFPA, that doesn’t account for the new quarterback, Nick Foles. It’s a negative the Falcons are on the road, but they are still three-point favorites.