DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 3

Sep 19, 2018

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using 4for4's GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low relative to projected performance. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players 4for4's projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. The players that are underweight, or fade recommendations, are for tournaments only—in fact, often times my cash game players will make it into that section as I often hedge by being underweight on those plays.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Andy Dalton ($7,200 FD/$5,700 DK)

Andy Dalton ranks third among all players this week in leverage scores. He projects to only be one percent owned, but his implied ownership comes in at three-to-six percent ownership. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has the Bengals offense humming. Dalton looks sharp connecting with receivers A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. The pass-catching duo has combined for nearly half of Cincinnati's targets through two weeks, which facilitates a team stack. Despite coming off a 26 point fantasy performance against a solid Ravens defense, Dalton will go under-owned simply based on the fact he last played on Thursday night, which often quells recency bias. I like the fact that the Bengals are on a few more days rest than the Panthers. Both the Bengals and the Panthers have solid run defenses, which could result in each team airing it out more, creating more possessions. This game has a sneaky chance to go over its 44-point total.