DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 8

Oct 25, 2018

The Week 8 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on, relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB C.J. Beathard ($7,300 FD/$4,900 DK)

It will probably go unnoticed that Beathard had one of his best fantasy days of this season against this Arizona Cardinals team just a few short weeks ago. He threw for 349 yards and scored three total touchdowns in a loss. The 49ers played at a lightning fast pace, running 92 plays. The Cardinals currently rank second in aFPA to quarterbacks, but at his current price, I’m willing to give Beathard a shot. He will be under-owned solely based on the chalk debacle of last week in which he threw up a dud. Marquise Goodwin should be more involved this week as Kyle Shanahan realizes he’s a key cog in their offense. Beathard doesn’t have Cam Newton upside with his legs, but he’s mobile and can tack on rushing yards and, as we’ve seen, rushing touchdowns to boost his total. Against this very defense, we’ve witnessed 25+ fantasy point upside earlier this month.

Beathard’s current ownership projection on both FanDuel and DraftKings sits at three percent. With a one and a half times the field leverage score on both sites, having five to eight percent Beathard will be plenty to be overweight on the field.