DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 10

Nov 08, 2018

The Week 10 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Mitch Trubisky ($7,700 FD/$5,600 DK)

Mitch Trubisky faces a Lions’ defense that funnels action to the run this week. Many will avoid Trubisky because the matchup with the Lions seems to indicate a run-heavy approach. However, that run-heavy approach could include Trubisky. He’s run for nearly 40 yards per game, basically the equivalent of an extra passing touchdown in fantasy points. Before a tough road game with the Bills, Trubisky averaged 31 fantasy points in his previous four games. He possesses a very high ceiling which is necessary for tournaments, evidenced by his 46 fantasy point performance against the Buccaneers. The Lions currently rank 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.