DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 12

Nov 21, 2019

Al Pereira/Getty Images

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Sam Darnold ($7,400 FD/$5,800 DK) vs. Raiders

This game features two defenses ranked in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, with Oakland coming in as a bottom five-unit, allowing the third-most fantasy points per pass attempt on the season. No team has allowed more completions on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield, which should help Darnold cash in on some splash plays. The Jets showed their ability to take advantage of a vulnerable secondary last week, as Darnold threw 293 yards and 4 scores against the Redskins. Despite the discrepancy in records, Oakland is favored by only three points, suggesting New York could win this outright in what could be the sneaky shootout of the week. With ownership heavily slanted towards a handful of quarterbacks, rostering him in just 10% of your lineups should put you well overweight on the field.