Undervalued Dynasty Players: June 2020

Jun 17, 2020

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For the last several years, I've been using 4for4's early rankings to identify dynasty trade targets in the offseason. Last year, I described the process and the 2019 results in a couple of articles. It's now time to revisit the topic for 2020.

Methodology

Starting with our projections for next season, I project each player further forward, beyond next season, using typical age curves for their position in order to estimate the points scored in all future seasons. Then, I combine all those points into a lifetime value for the player, in a similar manner to how you would value a stock.

Estimated lifetime values should correlate very strongly with ADP. Where the two disagree, we have a player that is potentially under- or over-valued. Below, I will go through the players who stand out as undervalued after applying this process with 4for4 rankings and current dynasty startup ADP.

Dynasty Values

Quarterback

Josh Allen may not be a good real-life quarterback, but he is a good fantasy quarterback. We currently have him projected as QB7 for 2020. At just 24 years old, he should have substantial value over his career, assuming he stays employed. Allen is being drafted in the same range as Carson Wentz in the ninth round, but Wentz is 3.5 years older and projected to score 40 fewer points next season. Based on those factors, I calculate that Allen should be drafted three rounds earlier, making him a substantial value in the ninth. Perhaps drafters think that Wentz's real-life quarterback play means that he will have more fantasy value in the long run, but then again, Wentz, not Allen, is the one who now has competition from Jalen Hurts.

Wentz currently sits at QB12 in our rankings, just in front of Daniel Jones, another questionable real-life quarterback that is an undervalued fantasy quarterback. We have Jones projected only 10 points below Wentz for next season, but since Jones is over four years younger, he also has an estimated lifetime value higher than Wentz's. Based on that lifetime value, I estimate that Jones should be going in the late eighth round, making him a solid bargain in the 12th round, where he is being drafted in startups today.