David Montgomery Is An Intriguing Pick—For Some Drafters

David Montgomery should be a prime target for me, a Zero RB truther who ignores almost everything but a player’s potential volume.

And he is, but just barely. Let me explain before the Monty truthers go into cardiac arrest.

Montgomery, after a mind-numbingly unproductive 267 touches last year, is being drafted in the fourth round as the 24th running back off the draft board. He’s the only runner in that range who could see anything close to 250 touches in 2020, barring injuries (or illness) removing backfield competition for backs like Devin Singletary, Cam Akers, and Jonathan Taylor. And if Montgomery gets a tad luckier with touchdowns this year—Montgomery scored on a measly 2.2% of his 2019 touches—he could shape up as a luxury for those who spend their first three picks on receivers and tight ends.

But will the Bears be good enough to maintain any semblance of a balanced offense? Will they provide Montgomery with the neutral and positive game script he requires to put up solid fantasy numbers?

David Montgomery's 2019 Recap

Cue his 2019 win-loss splits.

His fantasy production was basically the same in wins and losses because four of his six touchdowns came in Chicago losses (touchdowns being highly volatile). But you can see his opportunity—what we’re really concerned with—spiked in Bears wins, when the team didn’t have to abandon the running game and instead let Mitch Trubisky throw a bunch of passes seven feet over Allen Robinson’s head.

Montgomery’s potential usage this season also hinges on how one projects Tarik Cohen’s role in the Chicago offense.

David Montgomery's 2020 Outlook

Cohen, crashing back to earth after a hyper-efficient 2018 campaign, saw the exact same number of rush attempts in Chicago wins and losses last year, while getting 7.13 targets in losses and 5.85 targets in wins. He managed double-digit fantasy points (in PPR, no less) in exactly half of his 2019 games.

There’s not much to say Cohen will eat into Montgomery’s rush attempt domination in 2020, though we could see the scat back see more targets if the Bears are truly awful. It’s much more probable that we’ll see the Bears lean on Montgomery more than they did last season: Bears general manager Ryan Pace said in February that Monty can “carry a heavier load” in his second season. While we’re reading various tea leaves, Pace and head coach Matt Nagy have talked nearly constantly about the need to involve Montgomery as a primary part of the offense. Whether that’s good, analytically-driven football (it’s not) doesn’t matter to those intrigued by Montgomery’s volume potential.

How good are the Bears going to be in 2020? Well, Vegas has set the team’s win over/under at eight games, hardly a terrible sign for those who draft Montgomery hoping he’s not phased out of the game plan in favor of Cohen as the team struggles to keep pace with opponents. Chicago’s eight-win over/under is a mere half a game less than Tennessee’s and no one is afraid to go all in on Derrick Henry—another back who doesn’t catch passes—in the first round.

The Bottom Line

4for4’s excellent ADP Bargain tool has Montgomery as something close to an eye-popping value play at his current ADP, as 4for4 is 26 spots higher than Monty’s fourth-round ADP. Cohen’s ADP, meanwhile, is about 15 spots higher than 4for4’s ranks—not quite a massive gap, but a far cry from how the ADP Bargain tool views his backfield mate.

Montgomery will likely be an easy guy to pass over for fantasy managers who use two or three of their first few picks on running backs. They're simply not going to need Montgomery. For drafters who prefers a more receiver-heavy roster build, Monty is going to be a tough fade for anyone—namely, me—who values tantalizing volume of opportunity.