NFL Week 9 Lookahead Lines

Oct 30, 2020

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Week 8 is here and that means it’s time for us to lookahead to Week 9. The lines referenced in this article can be found on the FanDuel SportsBook (accurate at time of publication). The goal with these articles is to get as much Closing Line Value (CLV) as possible. Don’t wait to bet any lookahead lines, as a lot of these lines will move before you get the chance to bet them. I am playing a lot of these games but will be explicit if I don’t make a personal play... mostly the Jets. Below are my top plays...

Saints @ Buccaneers (-4)

Give me the Bucs laying the four points. I have been very down on the noodled-arm Drew Brees and company most of the season, especially without Michael "Slant Boy" Thomas. The Saints play the Bears this week and I expect them to do well versus a Bears team calling out their own head coach and who most likely won't have Allen Robinson (currently in the concussion protocol). Sidenote: I have a personal play on the Saints -5 that is out there currently. Meanwhile, in Week 8, the Bucs play a lowly Giants squad dealing with COVID issues along their offensive line—a lot of them were sent home for coming into contact with Will Hernandez. If Hernandez is not a false positive, this a big blow to a weak Giants team already weak at O-Line, to begin with.

Going back to Week 1 in this matchup, you had Brady and Co. with very little offseason to prepare for a Saints team with not much turnover on the roster and coaching staff. The Saints went +2 in turnover differential and only won by 10 points. They also won't be without the services of Thomas, who has been ruled OUT. If you listen hard enough, Antonio Brown is eligible to play this game and the media can’t control themselves over this. This alone probably moves the line 0.5-1 point in the Bucs' favor even though I don’t expect much out of him for another month assuming he makes it that long. Give me the Bucs -4, motivated to stick it to the Saints for their Week 1 result and take full control over the NFC South.

Bears @ Titans (-6.5)

The Bears were a fraudulent 5-1 team heading into last week's MNF game versus the Rams, and I expect the Saints to take care of business and win their Week 8 contest—by a decent margin. Allen Robinson most likely misses this game (concussion protocol), taking the Bears' offense from anemic to putrid. Robinson is by far the team's top wideout with 70 targets (second is Darnell Mooney with 37). The Chicago run game is also yucky. The Saints defense shouldn’t struggle very much here.

The fact the line us under seven with the Titans is a fantastic CLV opportunity. Not sure what happens with the Titans vs. Bengals game this week, but if the Titans cover (-7) against the Bengals, this line will go up. The Titans are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) but they should have covered versus the Broncos in Week 1, had an awful travel situation against the Jaguars the following week and should have sent the Steelers into overtime last week. I like the Titans to win by at least seven points over the Bears once the world sees another bad offensive performance from the Bears this week.

Patriots @ Jets (+7)

I'm not sure if I really want to play the Jets as I write this. New England's offense can’t get margin on anyone and they might just mail it in after the Bills this week. The Patriots have no weapons on offense, Cam Newton has regressed each week and Stephon Gilmore might get traded because the salary cap is coming down next year, so why keep an expensive piece around if you aren’t even playoff-bound? My biggest issue? That we're talking about the Jets. However, I don’t know a single sharp who wants to lay a touchdown with this Patriots team. Back the Jets at your own risk.

Panthers @ Chiefs (-10)

This is my honorary contention game with Panthers +10. I was getting ready to say take the Panthers +10 because a lot of the sharps like them, but Teddy Bridgewater's neck issue from the TNF contest versus the Falcons and the Panthers' offensive line poor blocking skills doesn't bode much confidence. Carolina's offense also really lacked firepower in the second half of that game. The Chiefs play the Jets this week and no one will be overly impressed with a win unless they drop 60 points on them. I think the Panthers +10 comes down but they are facing the Chiefs. (Sidenote: I like the Chiefs and Titans in a 6-point teaser).