Week 10 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Nov 14, 2020

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Week 9 Recap: Admittedly, there weren’t too many tilting losses because all of them got destroyed fairly quickly. It was my worst week of the season, largely on the back of the under getting busted. I bet seven unders last week—five of them lost. Before last week, I was hitting unders at a clip of 60-plus percent, so losing 5-of-7 bets was especially abysmal. Prior to Week 9, Nick Foles’s season-high in passing attempts was 42. He attempted 52 passes against a bad Tennessee pass defense and parlayed that into a season-high 335 passing yards. DeVante Parker’s under was the right play and you can’t convince me otherwise. It took a game-ending injury to Preston Williams for Parker to squeak over his 59.5 yardage total, finishing with 64 yards. It only took 20 years, but Tom Brady finally played like what a sixth-round draft pick out of Michigan is supposed to play like. The Bucs also turned in arguably the worst performance of the season relative to expectation. This impacted both Leonard Fournette’s carries and Antonio Brown’s receiving efficiency. Brown saw five targets and 99 air yards but somehow turned that into just three receptions for 31 yards.

I’ll say it pretty much every week but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my plays on island games. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. This week we already got down on five plays, most of which already have a lot of closing line value, including DeAndre Hopkins over 5.5 receptions (+108) and Miles Sanders over 54.5 rushing yards (now at 62.5). On to Week 10…

Week 10 PointsBet Player Prop Bets

Greg Ward Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

This is also available on DraftKings at 33.5 yards, but the juice is getting a bit out of hand for a yardage prop (-134). The Eagles are expected to have a full complement of pass-catchers with Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery all playing. Not to mention Miles Sanders returning to the fold as a strong pass-catching back. Ward actually went over this number when the Giants and Eagles met last time around, but his only competition for targets was Travis Fulgham. Looking at Ward’s season as a whole, he has gone for more than 33 receiving yards in just 3-of-8 games this season, most of which was fueled by being the only pass-catcher with a pulse. We have Ward projected for 22.5 receiving yards in this spot.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit