Best 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Odds

Sportsbooks are still reluctant to post too many season-long player props. In the meantime, we can break down some of the awards they do have odds posted for. In this specific article, we’ll focus on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, going through the odds as well as some of my thoughts about specific pricing. Using sportsbooks in Illinois, here are the best odds for each player.

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Offensive Rookie of the Year Trends

• With the NFL becoming more and more pass-heavy, I’ll mostly be looking at data since 2010.
• Unlike the MVP, which nearly always goes to a quarterback, this award has only been won by a signal-caller six times in the past 11 years. Running backs won four times, while Odell Beckham Jr. was the only wideout to win.
• Eight of the past 11 winners were drafted in the first round. Winners drafted outside of the first round were Alvin Kamara, Dak Prescott and Eddie Lacy.

Rookie of the Year Notes

• No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is the favorite at pretty much every sportsbook. Questions remain about Urban Meyer as an NFL head coach and whether or not Lawrence’s talent can make up for the rest of the roster's shortcomings.
• Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are in the next group of players with the highest odds. Interestingly enough, only Wilson is locked in to start Week 1.
• Tight End Kyle Pitts is the first skill player listed. The only tight end to win Offensive Rookie of the Year since 1957 was Mike Ditka (1961). If Julio Jones gets dealt, I’ll be more inclined to take a stab at Pitts.
• Najee Harris is the first running back listed at +1500. This is only +800 on DraftKings, meaning it is probably mispriced a bit at FanDuel. The Steelers are one of a few teams that will still rely on a bell-cow back and they invested first-round draft capital into Harris. He would normally be a much more appealing option given his projected role but he has to compete against at least two (and up to five) starting rookie quarterbacks. Harris could have a great season and still miss out on winning this award. He would not only need to crush, but also have every other quarterback turn in middling seasons.
• Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are all grouped together in odds as the top three wideouts who were selected in the NFL Draft. All of them figure to play a big role immediately. Odell Beckham was the only wideout to win this award in the last 11 years and he racked up 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns on 90 receptions in just 11 games.
• The next players in odds are a group of running backs in Travis Etienne (+2000), Javonte Williams (+3000) and Trey Sermon (+3000). All of them have backfield competition, but with an early-season breakout or injury to their competition, they could have a big rookie year.
• Kyle Trask is an interesting longshot at 100/1. If for some reason, Tom Brady were to go down early in the season, Trask would be supplied with a top-tier group of weapons and strong defense. A lot has to happen but that’s more than baked into the odds. PointsBet has it at 50/1. It’s far from a guarantee but head coach Bruce Arians has been praising the young signal-caller.

Editor's Note: Check out our in-depth player profile series to get to know more about this year's incoming rookie class.

Summary

The offensive rookie of the year market is pretty efficient and a tough one to take a position on. Trevor Lawrence is most likely to win given his talent but Justin Fields or Trey Lance could easily outperform him since they play on better teams. I would normally be much more interested in a first-round running back bound to receive bell-cow work like Najee Harris, but with up to five quarterbacks starting this season, it’s tough to imagine at least one not being successful. If anything, sprinkling a 10th of a unit on Kyle Trask would be my play. If Brady goes down, he’ll likely be thrust under center and has all the surroundings to have early success.

I'll update this page periodically throughout the offseason. If you have any questions you can find me on Twitter @ConnorAllen NFL. Make sure to also subscribe to our Discord for exclusive betting picks.

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