Week 7 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 6 Record: 5-2
Season Record: 27-19
I should have six wins but the crazy fourth quarter between Dallas and New England allowed Mac Jones to top his fantasy points by 0.76. Bad beats happen.
Week 7 Picks
Aaron Jones Over 16.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 22.4
Aaron Jones has topped this number three times in 2021, including against the Bears’ top-five rush defense, according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA). The Washington Football Team has been a colossal disappointment on both sides of the ball, which allows for Green Bay to dominate the time of possession. Jones is one of Aaron Rodgers’s most trusted offensive weapons and is averaging over six fantasy points per game in the passing attack alone. Jones is averaging over 17 touches per game and 18.35 PPR points per game.
Mo-Alie Cox Over 6.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 7.4
Over the past three weeks, Mo-Alie Cox has topped both this PrizePicks prop and his 4for4 projection. The San Francisco 49ers are top 10 in aFPA against tight ends but have not been as good against teams that utilize the tight end similarly to Indianapolis (Detroit, Philadelphia). In both instances, the 49ers allowed at least six fantasy points to the position. Alie-Cox has seen at least three targets (12 total) over the past three weeks as he has been incorporated more in the passing game. Indy lost WR Parris Campbell for more than likely the season, opening a few more targets.
Hunter Renfrow Under 59.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 48.8
The Philadelphia Eagles are second in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. The defense has allowed Antonio Brown and CeeDee Lamb to succeed in the slot, but that is expected. Renfrow has faced two other top-five units in aFPA and topped 59.5 yards once—Week 1’s banana-pants Monday night game against Baltimore. Hunter Renfrow has not topped this week’s prop yardage since Week 3.
D'Andre Swift Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 54.0
This is one of the easiest overs for me. D'Andre Swift has topped this mark in five-of-six games, settling for 33 receiving yards in Week 4 at Chicago. The Lions are double-digit road underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams in what will certainly be a negative game script for Detroit. Swift is averaging seven targets per game and has a target floor of five.
Carson Wentz Over 229.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 266.2
In four losses, Carson Wentz has averaged 273.5 passing yards. In two wins? 225.5 yards. The Colts will have to pass with their defense riddled with injuries and more than likely playing from behind. As Wentz has gotten healthier, he has looked the part of a starting QB. I also love Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and the aforementioned Mo-Alie Cox as his core receivers.
Josh Jacobs Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 77.8
Josh Jacobs is the unquestioned lead runner for Las Vegas, seeing at least 13 carries since returning from injury. The Eagles' run defense is soft, allowing two 100-yard rushers and three other backs to top 56.5 rushing yards. Part of the Raiders' offensive game plan should be to keep the ball out of Jalen Hurts’s hands, and one way to do that is to ride Jacobs.
DeAndre Hopkins Under 5.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 4.3
DeAndre Hopkins has topped 5.5 receptions twice in six games and required at least eight targets in each game to get over the hump. Kyler Murray has a handful of legitimate targets and Zach Ertz makes his team debut in Week 7. The majority of Hopkins's success in fantasy has been via touchdowns and fantasy points, not from receiving yards. Only two receivers have collected more than 5.5 receptions versus the Texans this season—so many options are open against them and/or opponents are tenderizing the defense on the ground.
