Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Colts at Jets

Nov 04, 2021

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The Jets head to the Midwest to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Your typical Thursday night game.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Vegas Total and Spread

The Colts are 10.5-point home favorites with an over/under of 45.5 points. Indianapolis has an implied team total of 28.5 points, while New York has an implied team total of 18 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

The spread for this game shows that the Colts have the better talent and roster, but being 10.5-point road favorites is a lot for a game that is usually played on Sunday. The Colts defense ($21) is one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL. They are stout against the run, ranking third in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the position. Against the quarterback, receivers, and tight ends, the Colts rank 21st, 24th, and 29th respectively.

Mike White ($25) has a chance to repeat his surprising Week 8 performance with the same group of targets. Corey Davis is doubtful (hip) and will likely not be an option, but White’s penchant for targeting Jamison Crowder ($15), Elijah Moore ($11), and Michael Carter ($15) out of the backfield made life miserable for the Bengals Week 8. White targeted four receivers at least three times and two running backs at least five times. That is uncanny for an unproven quarterback.

Carter’s emergence has added life to what was a listless Jets offense. He touched the ball 24 times in Week 8, 15 more times than the next back, Ty Johnson ($10). The Colts defense is as healthy as it has been this season but will have their hands full against a team that is at least better offensively than they are getting credit for.

The biggest discrepancy between the two teams is the Colts offense against the Jets defense ($13). The Jets allow the most fantasy points to opposing offenses and are the worst defense against running backs. It is not Thanksgiving yet but Jonathan Taylor ($34) should get fat off the Jets defense. Taylor has 100-plus yards of offense in six of eight games, including four in a row. The returns of C.J. Mosley and Jarrad Davis helped some Week 8 but on a short week their biggest impact may be another week or two away.

Carson Wentz ($27) and Michael Pittman Jr. ($19) may have one of the best connections in the NFL. Between bible studies and working together in the offseason, the duo has combined for 45 receptions and four touchdowns through eight games. Beyond Pittman, the rest of the receivers get in where they fit in and have been more tertiary options than secondary. That falls to Taylor, Mo-Alie Cox ($12), and Nyheim Hines ($16).

Close, low-scoring game

Jonathan Taylor
Carson Wentz
Colts defense
Michael Carter
Mike White
Jets defense

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Michael Carter ($15) and Ty Johnson ($10)

Mike White relied on his top two running backs last week, targeting the two 20 times and connecting on 14 of them. White targeted five players more than five times in Week 8 and none of them had an average target depth over seven yards. Johnson makes sense too because only two players had more targets than him and Elijah Moore had the same.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Denzel Mims ($10)

Mims received three targets, two catches for 30 yards, and an average target depth of 3.0 yards in Week 8. Mims is playing for his career/next team each week as he has fallen out of favor with the new Jets coaching staff.

Tyler Kroft ($10)

Kroft caught the game-winning touchdown in Week 8, a red zone target. As long as his back is not giving him trouble, he should be the top tight end target for the Jets. Kroft played on 12% more snaps than Ryan Griffin last week.

Jack Doyle ($10)

When the apocalypse wipes out the planet, Jack Doyle will be the last man standing. He sticks around enough, collected at least one target every week, scoring a touchdown in Week 8.

Keelan Cole ($10)

Five targets at the minimum salary are appealing.

Superstar Picks

Jonathan Taylor ($34)

If you read my twice-weekly Yahoo! pieces, I preach usage. Only Michael Carter should rival Taylor in total touches in this game.

Michael Carter ($15)

His recent usage tied with an apparently strong connection with Mike White makes Carter a strong pivot off Taylor.

Mike White ($25)

I need more Western Kentucky Mike White in this game. He topped 300 yards passing nine times his senior season (2017), including the final eight games. He topped 300 yards eight times in 2016, including a 500-yard performance.