Week 13 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicksTool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 12 Record: 4-3
Season Record: 52-36
Two PrizePicks choices last week bothered me. Deebo Samuel did not get over 63.5 receiving yards but topped it rushing, and James Robinson missed his fantasy points total by 0.5 points. I liked my process, and John Paulsen continues to crush projections so I take those as moral victories.
Week 13 Picks
Josh Reynolds Over 7.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 9.1
Josh Reynolds has been Detroit’s best receiver in his two games with the team and he gets an excellent matchup in Week 13. Minnesota is 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers. The Vikings have allowed at least two wideouts to top 7.0 fantasy points in a game eight times this season. In Detroit’s Week 5 loss to Minnesota in Minneapolis, only one receiver topped that mark (13.5 points) and it would not be surprising if that was Reynolds this week in a worst-case scenario. Minnesota is also allowing 29.5 points per game on the road.
Kenny Golladay Over 8.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 10.0
The New York Giants' offense only put up 264 yards in Week 12, but there were signs of life. There is also a clear effort by the Giants coaching staff to get the ball to its best players. Kenny Golladay pushed 8.0 last week and is in line to top that against the Miami Dolphins. The one team worse than the Vikings in WR aFPA is Miami, who is allowing 14.67 receptions, 188.5 receiving yards and 1.17 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts. Health appears to be on Golladay’s side—he's played at least 75% of the snaps the past two games.
Jonathan Taylor Over 100.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 99.0
This is a good line by PrizePicks because the Houston Texans have only allowed Jonathan Taylor to top the century mark rushing this season. Taylor had a three-game 100-yard rushing game streak broken in Week 12, but he has topped 100 yards in five of his last six contests. With the Texans' offense finding success with Tyrod Taylor throwing the ball, it makes sense to run the Colts' offense through Taylor to keep him from attacking a poor Indy secondary. Taylor is averaging 17.42 carries per game, a mark he should eclipse this week.
Kenyan Drake Over 15.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 22.8
Josh Jacobs was added to the Raiders' injury report Thursday with an ankle injury. Mid-week injuries are #NotGood and Jacobs was walking into a smash spot against the Washington Football team. A limited or inactive Jacobs opens the door for Kenyan Drake, who has topped 15 rushing yards in six straight games with and without the lead role. I strongly recommend pausing reading this piece to hit this prop.
Laviska Shenault Under 45.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 40.1
Laviska Shenault came out of the gates hot in Week 12 with five receptions and 33 receiving yards in the first half. The second half? Nothing. He was out-snapped by Laquon Treadwell and only saw one more target than the former first-round pick. Urban Meyer is doing his best to be the worst head coach in the NFL. A road game against the Los Angeles Rams should help Meyer’s cause and keep Shenault from being a useful piece on offense. After topping 45 yards in five-of-six games to start 2021, Shenault has done so once since Jacksonville’s Week 7 bye.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 80.6
Joe Mixon has been on fire for the Bengals, leading to less success elsewhere among skill position players. Ja'Marr Chase has not topped 59 receiving yards since his 201-yard breakout in Week 7. He gets a good Chargers secondary in Week 13, but Los Angeles allows receivers to go off so long as they have a competent quarterback (sorry Teddy Bridgewater). L.A. had allowed three straight games with a 100-yard receiver prior to Week 12 against Denver and have allowed a 60-yard receiver in 8-of-11 contests. If this game was in California, I would be more concerned, but a home game against a west coast team makes me comfortable with this prop. The Chargers are allowing 25.2 points per game in road contests and can put up points in a hurry on offense.
Russell Wilson Over 220.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 262.5
The Seahawks' running game has been nothing short of awful to the point the team signed a dusty Adrian Peterson. Russell Wilson showed signs of life in Week 12 against Washington and his throws looked better than they did in Weeks 10 and 11 after finger surgery. Wilson has been connecting with Tyler Lockett and Gerald Everett the most since returning and needs to get DK Metcalf involved more. San Francisco has allowed more than 220 passing yards in three of their past four games and should put Seattle in a position to throw with Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle causing fits for opposing defenses. It is anecdotal more than anything else, but Wilson has topped 220 passing yards in each of his last two homes games against the 49ers.
