Yahoo! DFS Single Game Breakdown: Washington Football Team at Cowboys

Dec 26, 2021

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Antonio Gibson's injured his toe on Tuesday and is listed as questionable for the game. In addition, Brandon Scherff and Cole Holcomb are on the COVID list, and Landon Collins and corner William Jackson will also be out in this game. The key players that the Cowboys will be without are left tackle Tyron Smith and cornerback Jourdan Lewis. These two players make key contributions to each side of the ball, and in the four games without Smith, Dak Prescott has thrown for under 240 yards in three out of four games.

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Vegas Lines

Over/Under: 47

Washington Football Team Implied Total: 18.5

Cowboys Implied Total: 28.5

The Cowboys are heavy favorites in this one, and this game is a dream matchup for how they operate as a defense. The Cowboys have 12 turnovers in their last three weeks, and Taylor Heinicke has an interception in each of his last three starts. The last time these teams matched up, Heinicke was sacked four times, threw one interception, and lost a fumble.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Through the first six weeks, Dal Prescott averaged 36 attempts, 302 yards, and 2.7 touchdowns, but since his calf injury is averaging 39 attempts, 255 yards passing, and 1.3 touchdowns a game. Prescott has had the passing attempts to have high point totals but has been very inefficient as of late, and in the first game against Washington had only 5.4 yards per attempt.

Tony Pollard has been the more efficient running back for Dallas, averaging eight yards a reception and 5.7 yards a carry compared to Ezekiel Elliott's 4.3 yards a carry and six yards per reception. Pollard has rushed for over 70 yards in two straight games and has had 10 or more touches in each of the games where the Cowboys won by 10 or more points. Amari Cooper has not had a target share over 20% since Week 7, while CeeDee Lamb has had over a 24% target share in three straight games. Micheal Gallup has had eight or more targets in four of the last five games, but most of those games have come while Cooper was limited. Dalton Schultz only had three targets in their first matchup with Washington but has had five or more targets in four of the last five games.

The Washington Football Team haven't had over 300 yards total offense in their last three games and only had 224 yards in their first matchup against the Cowboys. Without Antonio Gibson and Brandon Scherff, the Cowboys should limit this offense again. Jaret Patterson will be the lead running back in this offense without Gibson, but Jonathan Williams will also be in the mix for touches. Terry McLaurin was shut out in their first matchup but left with an injury, and Heinicke played his worst game of the season, completing less than 50% of his passes.

The Cowboys' pass rush will get after Heinicke and create some turnovers that put the Cowboys in good field position. Prescott finds some rhythm with the offense and gets two passing touchdowns early on. Pollard gets most of the carries in the second half when the Cowboys are playing with a two-possession lead. McLaurin will be able to beat Trevon Diggs in coverage this time around, and Heinicke will be able to get him the ball.

Here's a brief rundown of which players would likely benefit the most from various game flow scenarios.

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for the home team

Blowout for the road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Superstar Cowboys DST, $21

The Washington Football Team is without their best offensive lineman, and in their first matchup, the Cowboys had four sacks and turnovers in the game. I expect the Cowboys' defense to be the most popular play on the slate, as 10-point favorites at home.

Low-Salary Volatile Plays

Adam Humphries, Washington Football Team $10

Humphries had seven targets in their first matchup with the Cowboys and has led the team in targets in the last three weeks.

Jaret Patterson, Washington Football Team $10

Patterson was averaged 3.8 yards per carry on the year, and in the last two weeks, when relieving Antonio Gibson has eight carries for 49 yards and a touchdown.

Superstar Plays

Dak Prescott, Cowboys $34

Washington has given up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL, and despite not having a high yard per attempt, Prescott has thrown 37 or more passes in five straight games.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys $21

Lamb has been the most targeted wide receiver on the Cowboys in the last three weeks, and the Washington Football Team has given up the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers this season.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team $20

McLaurin was shut down in their first matchup against the Cowboys, but during this year, Tevon Diggs has given up big plays to wide receivers. Without Antonio Gibson as ten-point underdogs, McLaurin will see a ton of volume.